Anchored aggregation: Coalition 50.6%

There have been two quite disparate polls in the past 24 hours:

• The Fairfax/Ipsos poll has the Coalition on 49 per cent, with a high other parties primary vote of 14 per cent.
• The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition on 51 per cent (and I estimate 52.2 per cent if we apply preference flows at the last election to the primary vote estimates). It also has a relatively high other parties primary vote share of 13.7 percent.

Applying these polls to the Bayesian aggregation, I get a 2013 election anchored estimate of 50.6 per cent in the Coalition's favour.

The high other parties vote suggests that the Nick Xenophon Team might either capture seats from the Coalition or at least play the role of kingmaker with its preference flows.

For this reason, it is worth looking at the primary votes. In the following aggregations, the primary votes are construed such that the sum of the house effects across the parties and across the pollsters sum to zero.

These charts suggest both the Coalition and Labor (but more-so Labor) are losing primary votes to the other parties category.

Ipsos 49-51; ReachTEL 50-50

Two new polls; two different directions:

• The Fairfax Ipsos poll has Labor ahead on 51 (+2) to the Coalition's 49 (-2)
• The 7 News ReachTEL poll has the Coalition on 50 (+2) and Labor on 50 (-2)

With the magic of poll aggregation, we can see that the trend continues to move away from the Coalition. The next chart is of the aggregation of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share that is anchored to the 2013 election result.

ReachTel 50-50; Ipsos 51-49

Two new polls in the past 24 hours:

• The Ipsos poll of 1497 respondents between 17-19 May had the Coalition on 51 to Labor's 49.
• The ReachTEL poll of 2407 respondents on 19 May had the Coalition and Labor on 50.

Placing these numbers into the standard aggregation model, yields an estimated national voting intention of 49.9 for the Coalition to 50.1 to Labor - a dead heat.

The primary vote aggregation (and implied national TPP vote using preferences from the last election) follow.

Update

The complete set of Sportsbet seat betting market tables follow.

Election outcome based on all favourites winning their seat

Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team
0.0	80.5	1.0	2.0	1.0	65.5	0.0

A list of seats with equal favourites

	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate
Swan (WA)	3.29	45.69	5.34	0.0	0.0	45.69	0.0	Coalition, Labor

Complete list of Seat Odds

$	1 Territory	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Liberal	National	Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Adelaide (SA)	-	26.0	4.00	21.00	-	-	1.33	-	-	9.0
Aston (VIC)	-	34.0	1.05	26.00	-	-	6.00	-	-	-
Ballarat (VIC)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Banks (NSW)	-	26.0	1.75	21.00	-	-	2.00	-	-	-
Barker (SA)	-	26.0	1.05	26.00	-	-	26.00	-	-	7.0
Barton (NSW)	-	26.0	8.50	26.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Bass (TAS)	-	26.0	1.25	26.00	-	-	3.75	-	-	-
Batman (VIC)	-	26.0	26.00	3.00	-	-	1.35	-	-	-
Bendigo (VIC)	-	26.0	6.00	26.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Bennelong (NSW)	-	26.0	1.10	26.00	-	-	6.00	-	-	-
Berowra (NSW)	-	26.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Blair (QLD)	-	26.0	8.50	26.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Blaxland (NSW)	-	26.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Bonner (QLD)	-	26.0	1.50	26.00	-	-	2.30	-	-	-
Boothby (SA)	-	26.0	1.20	26.00	-	-	7.50	-	-	6.0
Bowman (QLD)	-	17.0	1.15	26.00	-	-	5.50	-	-	-
Braddon (TAS)	-	21.0	1.45	26.00	-	-	2.60	-	-	-
Bradfield (NSW)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Brand (WA)	-	26.0	13.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Brisbane (QLD)	-	26.0	1.62	21.00	-	-	2.20	-	-	-
Bruce (VIC)	-	26.0	5.00	26.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Burt (WA)	-	34.0	2.25	-	-	-	1.60	-	-	-
Calare (NSW)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	16.0
Calwell (VIC)	-	26.0	11.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Canberra (ACT)	-	26.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Canning (WA)	-	26.0	1.10	26.00	-	-	6.00	-	-	-
Capricornia (QLD)	-	26.0	3.00	26.00	-	-	1.35	-	-	-
Casey (VIC)	-	26.0	1.17	26.00	-	-	4.50	-	-	-
Chifley (NSW)	-	21.0	16.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Chisholm (VIC)	-	26.0	6.50	21.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Cook (NSW)	-	16.0	1.01	16.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Corangamite (VIC)	-	26.0	1.75	21.00	-	-	2.00	-	-	-
Corio (VIC)	-	16.0	16.00	16.00	-	-	1.02	-	-	-
Cowan (WA)	-	26.0	1.67	26.00	-	-	2.20	-	-	-
Cowper (NSW)	-	11.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Cunningham (NSW)	-	13.0	21.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Curtin (WA)	-	26.0	1.01	16.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Dawson (QLD)	-	26.0	1.20	26.00	-	-	4.00	-	-	-
Deakin (VIC)	-	26.0	1.75	15.00	-	-	2.00	-	-	-
Denison (TAS)	-	26.0	21.00	21.00	1.10	-	6.00	-	-	-
Dickson (QLD)	-	26.0	1.35	26.00	-	-	3.00	-	-	-
Dobell (NSW)	-	34.0	2.50	34.00	-	-	1.50	-	-	-
Dunkley (VIC)	-	41.0	1.58	31.00	-	-	2.40	-	-	-
Durack (WA)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Eden Monaro (NSW)	-	51.0	2.00	51.00	-	-	1.75	-	-	-
Fadden (QLD)	-	16.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Fairfax (QLD)	-	26.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Farrer (NSW)	-	12.0	1.01	21.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Fenner (ACT)	-	21.0	16.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Fisher (QLD)	-	17.0	1.10	21.00	-	-	7.50	-	-	-
Flinders (VIC)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Flynn (QLD)	-	16.0	1.30	34.00	-	-	3.30	-	-	-
Forde (QLD)	-	26.0	1.50	26.00	-	-	2.50	-	-	-
Forrest (WA)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Fowler (NSW)	-	16.0	21.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Franklin (TAS)	-	26.0	8.00	11.00	-	-	1.07	-	-	-
Fremantle (WA)	-	26.0	13.00	4.20	-	-	1.20	-	-	-
Gelibrand (VIC)	-	26.0	16.00	12.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Gilmore (NSW)	-	31.0	1.45	26.00	-	-	2.50	-	-	-
Gippsland (VIC)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Goldstein (VIC)	-	26.0	1.01	34.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Gorton (VIC)	-	26.0	16.00	16.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Grayndler (NSW)	-	26.0	17.00	3.35	-	-	1.30	-	-	-
Greenway (NSW)	-	26.0	5.00	26.00	-	-	1.12	-	-	-
Grey (SA)	-	26.0	1.02	26.00	-	-	7.00	-	-	16.0
Griffith (QLD)	-	34.0	6.00	23.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Groom (QLD)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	26.00	-	-	21.0
Hasluck (WA)	-	26.0	2.00	21.00	-	-	1.70	-	-	-
Herbert (QLD)	-	21.0	1.30	26.00	-	-	3.50	-	-	-
Higgins (VIC)	-	26.0	1.15	7.50	-	-	16.00	-	-	11.0
Hindmarsh (SA)	-	26.0	2.50	26.00	-	-	1.75	-	-	7.5
Hinkler (QLD)	-	15.0	1.15	26.00	-	-	5.00	-	-	-
Holt (VIC)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Hotham (VIC)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Hughes (NSW)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Hume (NSW)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	15.00	-	-	-
Hunter(NSW)	-	26.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Indi (VIC)	-	26.0	-	51.00	1.15	-	16.00	11.0	6.0	-
Isaacs (VIC)	-	26.0	8.50	21.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Jagajaga (VIC)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Kennedy (QLD)	-	26.0	4.25	26.00	-	1.2	21.00	-	-	-
Kingsford Smith (NSW)	-	26.0	8.50	11.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Kingston (SA)	-	26.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	8.0
Kooyong (VIC)	-	26.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
La Trobe (Vic)	-	26.0	1.60	21.00	-	-	2.25	-	-	-
Lalor (VIC)	-	26.0	11.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Leichhardt (QLD)	-	12.0	1.35	26.00	-	-	3.00	-	-	-
Lilley (QLD)	-	26.0	8.50	21.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Lindsay (NSW)	-	26.0	1.50	21.00	-	-	2.40	-	-	16.0
Lingiari (NT)	51.0	26.0	3.00	21.00	-	-	1.30	-	-	-
Longman (QLD)	-	26.0	1.20	26.00	-	-	4.00	-	-	-
Lyne (NSW)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	26.00	-	-	-
Lyons (TAS)	-	16.0	1.55	26.00	-	-	2.35	-	-	-
Macarthur (NSW)	-	21.0	2.00	34.00	-	-	1.75	-	-	16.0
Mackellar (NSW)	-	-	1.01	26.00	12.00	-	21.00	-	-	-
Macquarie (NSW)	-	26.0	1.50	26.00	-	-	2.20	-	-	-
Makin (SA)	-	26.0	16.00	26.00	-	-	1.08	-	-	7.0
Mallee (VIC)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Maranoa (QLD)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Maribyrnong (VIC)	-	26.0	11.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Mayo (SA)	-	21.0	1.10	31.00	-	-	31.00	-	-	5.0
McEwen (VIC)	-	26.0	3.40	21.00	-	-	1.30	-	-	-
McMahon (NSW)	-	26.0	11.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
McMillan (VIC)	-	21.0	1.02	26.00	-	-	11.00	-	-	-
McPherson (QLD)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Melbourne (VIC)	-	26.0	21.00	1.05	-	-	9.00	-	-	-
Melbourne Ports (VIC)	-	26.0	16.00	5.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Menzies (VIC)	-	26.0	1.01	26.00	11.00	-	26.00	-	-	-
Mitchell (NSW)	-	16.0	1.01	16.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Moncrieff (QLD)	-	16.0	1.01	16.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Moore (WA)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	12.00	-	-	-
Moreton (QLD)	-	26.0	8.50	21.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	16.0
Murray (VIC)	-	16.0	-	26.00	-	-	21.00	2.1	1.6	-
New England (NSW)	-	26.0	1.30	26.00	2.75	-	26.00	-	-	-
Newcastle (NSW)	-	17.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.04	-	-	-
North Sydney (NSW)	-	21.0	1.01	21.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
O'Connor (WA)	-	16.0	1.01	21.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Oxley (QLD)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Page (NSW)	-	26.0	1.75	11.00	-	-	2.30	-	-	-
Parkes (NSW)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	26.00	-	-	-
Parramatta (NSW)	-	26.0	5.00	26.00	-	-	1.10	-	-	-
Paterson (NSW)	-	17.0	3.75	26.00	-	-	1.25	-	-	-
Pearce (WA)	-	26.0	1.20	21.00	-	-	4.20	-	-	-
Perth (WA)	-	51.0	8.00	21.00	-	-	1.03	-	-	-
Petrie (QLD)	-	26.0	3.00	41.00	-	-	1.35	-	-	-
Port Adelaide (SA)	-	26.0	21.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	11.0
Rankin (QLD)	-	21.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Reid (NSW)	-	26.0	1.63	26.00	-	-	2.05	-	-	-
Richmond (NSW)	-	26.0	4.50	5.00	-	-	1.45	-	-	-
Riverina (NSW)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Robertson (NSW)	-	34.0	1.57	7.00	-	-	2.25	-	-	-
Ryan (QLD)	-	26.0	1.10	16.00	-	-	6.00	-	-	-
Scullin (VIC)	-	26.0	16.00	8.00	-	-	1.05	-	-	-
Shortland (NSW)	-	26.0	12.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Solomon (NT)	-	26.0	2.50	26.00	101.00	-	1.50	-	-	-
Stirling (WA)	-	26.0	1.44	26.00	-	-	2.55	-	-	-
Sturt (SA)	-	-	1.15	26.00	-	-	7.00	-	-	5.0
Swan (WA)	-	26.0	1.87	16.00	-	-	1.87	-	-	-
Sydney (NSW)	-	26.0	21.00	5.00	-	-	1.17	-	-	-
Tangney (WA)	-	-	1.01	21.00	12.00	-	26.00	-	-	-
Wakefield (SA)	-	26.0	16.00	26.00	-	-	1.08	-	-	6.0
Wannon (VIC)	-	12.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	-
Warringah (NSW)	-	9.0	1.06	26.00	-	-	21.00	-	-	8.0
Watson (NSW)	-	26.0	11.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Wentworth (NSW)	-	16.0	1.01	16.00	-	-	16.00	-	-	-
Werriwa (NSW)	-	26.0	11.00	21.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Whitlam (NSW)	-	16.0	12.00	26.00	-	-	1.01	-	-	-
Wide Bay (QLD)	-	15.0	1.07	26.00	-	-	7.00	-	-	-
Wills (VIC)	-	41.0	31.00	4.50	-	-	1.16	-	-	-
Wright (QLD)	-	21.0	1.01	26.00	-	-	13.00	-	-	-

Complete list of Seat Probabilities

%	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate
Wills (VIC)	2.14	2.83	19.48	-	-	75.56	-	Labor
Batman (VIC)	3.34	3.34	28.96	-	-	64.36	-	Labor
Port Adelaide (SA)	3.17	3.92	3.92	-	-	81.51	7.48	Labor
Denison (TAS)	3.18	3.94	3.94	75.17	-	13.78	-	Independent
Cunningham (NSW)	6.62	4.10	4.10	-	-	85.19	-	Labor
Melbourne (VIC)	3.35	4.14	82.85	-	-	9.67	-	Green
Fowler (NSW)	5.45	4.15	4.15	-	-	86.26	-	Labor
Sydney (NSW)	3.37	4.17	17.53	-	-	74.92	-	Labor
Grayndler (NSW)	3.30	5.05	25.62	-	-	66.03	-	Labor
Wakefield (SA)	3.12	5.07	3.12	-	-	75.16	13.53	Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC)	3.18	5.17	16.53	-	-	75.13	-	Labor
Makin (SA)	3.18	5.17	3.18	-	-	76.64	11.82	Labor
Scullin (VIC)	3.26	5.30	10.61	-	-	80.82	-	Labor
Gelibrand (VIC)	3.28	5.32	7.10	-	-	84.31	-	Labor
Corio (VIC)	5.35	5.35	5.35	-	-	83.95	-	Labor
Gorton (VIC)	3.33	5.42	5.42	-	-	85.83	-	Labor
Chifley (NSW)	4.15	5.45	4.15	-	-	86.26	-	Labor
Fenner (ACT)	4.15	5.45	4.15	-	-	86.26	-	Labor
Fremantle (WA)	3.24	6.48	20.06	-	-	70.22	-	Labor
Brand (WA)	3.34	6.67	4.13	-	-	85.86	-	Labor
Kingston (SA)	3.22	6.98	3.22	-	-	76.12	10.47	Labor
Whitlam (NSW)	5.32	7.10	3.28	-	-	84.31	-	Labor
Jagajaga (VIC)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Ballarat (VIC)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Hotham (VIC)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Holt (VIC)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Oxley (QLD)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Rankin (QLD)	4.11	7.19	3.32	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Shortland (NSW)	3.32	7.19	4.11	-	-	85.39	-	Labor
Newcastle (NSW)	5.11	7.24	4.14	-	-	83.52	-	Labor
Canberra (ACT)	3.34	7.24	3.34	-	-	86.07	-	Labor
Hunter(NSW)	3.34	7.24	3.34	-	-	86.07	-	Labor
Blaxland (NSW)	3.34	7.24	3.34	-	-	86.07	-	Labor
Calwell (VIC)	3.30	7.79	4.08	-	-	84.83	-	Labor
Lalor (VIC)	3.30	7.79	4.08	-	-	84.83	-	Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC)	3.30	7.79	4.08	-	-	84.83	-	Labor
Werriwa (NSW)	3.30	7.79	4.08	-	-	84.83	-	Labor
McMahon (NSW)	3.32	7.85	3.32	-	-	85.51	-	Labor
Watson (NSW)	3.32	7.85	3.32	-	-	85.51	-	Labor
Moreton (QLD)	3.16	9.65	3.91	-	-	78.15	5.13	Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW)	3.21	9.81	7.58	-	-	79.40	-	Labor
Isaacs (VIC)	3.33	10.18	4.12	-	-	82.38	-	Labor
Lilley (QLD)	3.33	10.18	4.12	-	-	82.38	-	Labor
Blair (QLD)	3.35	10.26	3.35	-	-	83.04	-	Labor
Barton (NSW)	3.35	10.26	3.35	-	-	83.04	-	Labor
Franklin (TAS)	3.23	10.51	7.65	-	-	78.61	-	Labor
Perth (WA)	1.69	10.75	4.09	-	-	83.47	-	Labor
Chisholm (VIC)	3.35	13.39	4.14	-	-	79.12	-	Labor
Bendigo (VIC)	3.34	14.46	3.34	-	-	78.87	-	Labor
Griffith (QLD)	2.56	14.51	3.79	-	-	79.14	-	Labor
Parramatta (NSW)	3.24	16.86	3.24	-	-	76.65	-	Labor
Bruce (VIC)	3.24	16.86	3.24	-	-	76.65	-	Labor
Greenway (NSW)	3.29	17.10	3.29	-	-	76.33	-	Labor
Richmond (NSW)	3.34	19.32	17.39	-	-	59.95	-	Labor
Kennedy (QLD)	3.22	19.72	3.22	-	69.84	3.99	-	KAP (Bob Katter)
Indi (VIC)	3.08	20.64	1.57	69.69	-	5.01	-	Independent
Adelaide (SA)	3.21	20.85	3.97	-	-	62.71	9.27	Labor
Paterson (NSW)	5.05	22.91	3.30	-	-	68.73	-	Labor
McEwen (VIC)	3.35	25.59	4.14	-	-	66.92	-	Labor
Lingiari (NT)	4.81	27.59	3.94	-	-	63.66	-	Labor
Capricornia (QLD)	3.34	28.96	3.34	-	-	64.36	-	Labor
Petrie (QLD)	3.38	29.32	2.15	-	-	65.15	-	Labor
Hindmarsh (SA)	3.25	33.85	3.25	-	-	48.36	11.28	Labor
Solomon (NT)	3.33	34.68	3.33	0.86	-	57.80	-	Labor
Dobell (NSW)	2.61	35.54	2.61	-	-	59.23	-	Labor
Burt (WA)	2.68	40.45	-	-	-	56.88	-	Labor
Macarthur (NSW)	3.93	41.29	2.43	-	-	47.19	5.16	Labor
Hasluck (WA)	3.28	42.58	4.06	-	-	50.09	-	Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW)	1.77	45.02	1.77	-	-	51.45	-	Labor
Swan (WA)	3.29	45.69	5.34	-	-	45.69	-	Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC)	3.27	48.57	5.67	-	-	42.50	-	Coalition
Corangamite (VIC)	3.32	49.37	4.11	-	-	43.20	-	Coalition
Banks (NSW)	3.32	49.37	4.11	-	-	43.20	-	Coalition
Page (NSW)	3.39	50.32	8.01	-	-	38.29	-	Coalition
Robertson (NSW)	2.35	50.81	11.40	-	-	35.45	-	Coalition
Reid (NSW)	3.26	52.07	3.26	-	-	41.40	-	Coalition
Cowan (WA)	3.40	52.98	3.40	-	-	40.22	-	Coalition
Brisbane (QLD)	3.32	53.31	4.11	-	-	39.26	-	Coalition
La Trobe (Vic)	3.33	54.09	4.12	-	-	38.46	-	Coalition
Lindsay (NSW)	3.12	54.12	3.87	-	-	33.82	5.07	Coalition
Lyons (TAS)	5.33	55.06	3.28	-	-	36.32	-	Coalition
Macquarie (NSW)	3.21	55.64	3.21	-	-	37.94	-	Coalition
Bonner (QLD)	3.26	56.58	3.26	-	-	36.90	-	Coalition
Dunkley (VIC)	2.20	57.21	2.92	-	-	37.67	-	Coalition
Forde (QLD)	3.36	58.30	3.36	-	-	34.98	-	Coalition
Gilmore (NSW)	2.78	59.43	3.31	-	-	34.47	-	Coalition
Braddon (TAS)	4.10	59.44	3.31	-	-	33.15	-	Coalition
Stirling (WA)	3.31	59.68	3.31	-	-	33.70	-	Coalition
New England (NSW)	3.08	61.62	3.08	29.13	-	3.08	-	Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD)	6.97	61.94	3.22	-	-	27.87	-	Coalition
Dickson (QLD)	3.34	64.36	3.34	-	-	28.96	-	Coalition
Flynn (QLD)	5.37	66.08	2.53	-	-	26.03	-	Coalition
Herbert (QLD)	4.17	67.42	3.37	-	-	25.04	-	Coalition
Boothby (SA)	3.18	68.86	3.18	-	-	11.02	13.77	Coalition
Sturt (SA)	-	69.52	3.07	-	-	11.42	15.99	Coalition
Bass (TAS)	3.36	69.96	3.36	-	-	23.32	-	Coalition
Longman (QLD)	3.31	71.82	3.31	-	-	21.55	-	Coalition
Dawson (QLD)	3.31	71.82	3.31	-	-	21.55	-	Coalition
Pearce (WA)	3.32	71.99	4.11	-	-	20.57	-	Coalition
Higgins (VIC)	3.22	72.78	11.16	-	-	5.23	7.61	Coalition
Hinkler (QLD)	5.68	74.02	3.27	-	-	17.03	-	Coalition
Casey (VIC)	3.33	74.07	3.33	-	-	19.26	-	Coalition
Mayo (SA)	3.90	74.44	2.64	-	-	2.64	16.38	Coalition
Warringah (NSW)	8.78	74.54	3.04	-	-	3.76	9.88	Coalition
Bowman (QLD)	5.12	75.70	3.35	-	-	15.83	-	Coalition
Ryan (QLD)	3.27	77.26	5.31	-	-	14.16	-	Coalition
Grey (SA)	3.05	77.64	3.05	-	-	11.31	4.95	Coalition
Barker (SA)	3.18	78.67	3.18	-	-	3.18	11.80	Coalition
Canning (WA)	3.34	78.87	3.34	-	-	14.46	-	Coalition
Bennelong (NSW)	3.34	78.87	3.34	-	-	14.46	-	Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD)	5.64	79.03	3.25	-	-	12.08	-	Coalition
Fisher (QLD)	5.12	79.13	4.14	-	-	11.61	-	Coalition
Aston (VIC)	2.48	80.24	3.24	-	-	14.04	-	Coalition
Calare (NSW)	6.82	81.02	3.15	-	-	3.90	5.11	Coalition
Groom (QLD)	6.96	82.65	3.21	-	-	3.21	3.97	Coalition
Menzies (VIC)	3.21	82.76	3.21	7.60	-	3.21	-	Coalition
Cowper (NSW)	7.69	83.77	3.25	-	-	5.29	-	Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD)	5.31	84.08	5.31	-	-	5.31	-	Coalition
Cook (NSW)	5.31	84.08	5.31	-	-	5.31	-	Coalition
Mitchell (NSW)	5.31	84.08	5.31	-	-	5.31	-	Coalition
Wentworth (NSW)	5.31	84.08	5.31	-	-	5.31	-	Coalition
McMillan (VIC)	4.11	84.71	3.32	-	-	7.85	-	Coalition
Farrer (NSW)	7.13	84.72	4.07	-	-	4.07	-	Coalition
O'Connor (WA)	5.38	85.15	4.10	-	-	5.38	-	Coalition
Durack (WA)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Mackellar (NSW)	-	85.39	3.32	7.19	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Tangney (WA)	-	85.39	4.11	7.19	-	3.32	-	Coalition
Riverina (NSW)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Hughes (NSW)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
Mallee (VIC)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Wannon (VIC)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Flinders (VIC)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
Gippsland (VIC)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Bradfield (NSW)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
McPherson (QLD)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
Maranoa (QLD)	7.19	85.39	3.32	-	-	4.11	-	Coalition
Moore (WA)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
Forrest (WA)	4.11	85.39	3.32	-	-	7.19	-	Coalition
Fadden (QLD)	5.42	85.83	3.33	-	-	5.42	-	Coalition
Curtin (WA)	3.33	85.83	5.42	-	-	5.42	-	Coalition
Wright (QLD)	4.13	85.86	3.34	-	-	6.67	-	Coalition
Fairfax (QLD)	3.34	86.07	3.34	-	-	7.24	-	Coalition
Berowra (NSW)	3.34	86.07	3.34	-	-	7.24	-	Coalition
Parkes (NSW)	7.24	86.07	3.34	-	-	3.34	-	Coalition
Lyne (NSW)	7.24	86.07	3.34	-	-	3.34	-	Coalition
Kooyong (VIC)	3.34	86.07	3.34	-	-	7.24	-	Coalition
North Sydney (NSW)	4.15	86.26	4.15	-	-	5.45	-	Coalition
Hume (NSW)	4.17	86.63	3.37	-	-	5.83	-	Coalition
Goldstein (VIC)	3.37	86.75	2.58	-	-	7.30	-	Coalition
Murray (VIC)	5.00	88.11	3.08	-	-	3.81	-	Coalition

Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate
Grayndler (NSW)	3.30	5.05	25.62	-	-	66.03	-	Labor
Batman (VIC)	3.34	3.34	28.96	-	-	64.36	-	Labor
Melbourne (VIC)	3.35	4.14	82.85	-	-	9.67	-	Green

Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate

Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate
New England (NSW)	3.08	61.62	3.08	29.13	-	3.08	-	Coalition
Indi (VIC)	3.08	20.64	1.57	69.69	-	5.01	-	Independent
Denison (TAS)	3.18	3.94	3.94	75.17	-	13.78	-	Independent

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members

%	Any Other	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Liberal	National	Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Murray (VIC)	5.00	3.08	-	-	3.81	38.10	50.01	-
Indi (VIC)	3.08	1.57	69.69	-	5.01	7.29	13.36	-

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.

	TPP 2013	TCP 2013	2013 Outcome	2016 Favourite
Seat
Burt (WA)	LIB 6.1%	-	Coalition	Labor
Capricornia (QLD)	LNP 0.8%	-	Coalition	Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW)	LIB 2.9%	-	Coalition	Labor
Fairfax (QLD)	-	PUP 0.03% v LNP	Palmer United	Coalition
Hasluck (WA)	LIB 6.0%	-	Coalition	Labor
Hindmarsh (SA)	LIB 1.9%	-	Coalition	Labor
Macarthur (NSW)	LIB 3.3%	-	Coalition	Labor
Petrie (QLD)	LNP 0.5%	-	Coalition	Labor
Solomon (NT)	CLP 1.4%	-	Coalition	Labor
Swan (WA)	LIB 7.3%	-	Coalition	Coalition, Labor

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

%	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Independent	KAP (Bob Katter)	Labor	Nick Xenophon Team	2016 Favourite
Electorate
Richmond (NSW)	3.34	19.32	17.39	-	-	59.95	-	Labor
Hindmarsh (SA)	3.25	33.85	3.25	-	-	48.36	11.28	Labor
Solomon (NT)	3.33	34.68	3.33	0.86	-	57.80	-	Labor
Dobell (NSW)	2.61	35.54	2.61	-	-	59.23	-	Labor
Burt (WA)	2.68	40.45	-	-	-	56.88	-	Labor
Macarthur (NSW)	3.93	41.29	2.43	-	-	47.19	5.16	Labor
Hasluck (WA)	3.28	42.58	4.06	-	-	50.09	-	Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW)	1.77	45.02	1.77	-	-	51.45	-	Labor
Swan (WA)	3.29	45.69	5.34	-	-	45.69	-	Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC)	3.27	48.57	5.67	-	-	42.50	-	Coalition
Corangamite (VIC)	3.32	49.37	4.11	-	-	43.20	-	Coalition
Banks (NSW)	3.32	49.37	4.11	-	-	43.20	-	Coalition
Page (NSW)	3.39	50.32	8.01	-	-	38.29	-	Coalition
Robertson (NSW)	2.35	50.81	11.40	-	-	35.45	-	Coalition
Reid (NSW)	3.26	52.07	3.26	-	-	41.40	-	Coalition
Cowan (WA)	3.40	52.98	3.40	-	-	40.22	-	Coalition
Brisbane (QLD)	3.32	53.31	4.11	-	-	39.26	-	Coalition
La Trobe (Vic)	3.33	54.09	4.12	-	-	38.46	-	Coalition
Lindsay (NSW)	3.12	54.12	3.87	-	-	33.82	5.07	Coalition
Lyons (TAS)	5.33	55.06	3.28	-	-	36.32	-	Coalition
Macquarie (NSW)	3.21	55.64	3.21	-	-	37.94	-	Coalition
Bonner (QLD)	3.26	56.58	3.26	-	-	36.90	-	Coalition
Dunkley (VIC)	2.20	57.21	2.92	-	-	37.67	-	Coalition
Forde (QLD)	3.36	58.30	3.36	-	-	34.98	-	Coalition
Gilmore (NSW)	2.78	59.43	3.31	-	-	34.47	-	Coalition
Braddon (TAS)	4.10	59.44	3.31	-	-	33.15	-	Coalition
Stirling (WA)	3.31	59.68	3.31	-	-	33.70	-	Coalition

Newspoll 49-51; Ipsos 51-49

Every child won a prize in today's polls. Newspoll has its latest estimate of the national two-party preferred vote share at 49-51 in Labor's favour. Ipsos has it at 51-49 in the Coalition's favour.

My standard aggregation, which assumes that collectively the individual pollster biases cancel each other out, splits the difference at 50-50.

If I anchor the the aggregation to the polling outcome at the last election, I have the Coalition ahead on 50.7 to Labor on 49.3.

A more detailed explanation of the data aggregation process can be found on this page. 

Ipsos also at 50-50

On Friday I reported that ReachTEL was at 50-50; and today it's the Fairfax-Ipsos poll which is at 50-50. The best Fairfax reporting on this poll can be found in the Fin Review.

So, it is time to update the aggregation. Today's Ipsos poll shifts the estimated national two-party-preferred vote share for the Coalition to 50.2 per cent.

As usual, please note that these models embody a number of assumptions and methodological issues which need to be considered when interpreting the model output. For more information look here.

Turning to the primary vote data.

It is worth noting that the 2013 election saw an unusually low preference flow from other parties to the Coalition. If preference flows at the next election are more like the 2010 election, then the pollsters still have the Coalition well ahead in TPP terms.

Interestingly, on the attitudinal polling, there is a change from the consistent pollster treatment of then Prime Minister Abbott. Ipsos is more benign to Turnbull on the attitudinal polling in comparison with the other pollsters.

Which affects the aggregation of the attitudinal polling.