One Nation's primary vote has surged from ~9% in mid-2025 to 23.5% in my latest poll aggregation. That's nearly 4x their 2025 federal election result of 6.4%.
The trajectory is remarkable. Steady climb through late 2025, accelerating from October onward, then plateauing around 23% from February 2026. The leadership changes (Taylor for the Libs, Canavan for the Nats) coincide with the plateau rather than the surge itself.
I am now applying the same Bayesian aggregation techniques I use to the opinion polling. I wrote extensively about those techniques here. The results are as follows:
Now that we have enough data (around 40 national polls since the last election), we can start looking at a Bayesian aggregation using a Gaussian random walk to estimate voting intention from day to day. I will tease with the chart that intrigues me the most: the rise of the One Nation Party since the 2025 election.
It's time for another polling update. We will start with the primary voting intention polls. Of note, there is a substantial divergence between polling firms. In the last couple of weeks we can see one pollster with the Coalition primary vote share at 24 per cent and another at 33. On the other side of the fence one pollster had Labor's primary vote share at 33 per cent and another over 38 per cent.
Overall, the Greens and Others are little changed since the election. Labor's post election honeymoon may be coming to an end. The Coalition's post-election decline may be stalling. One Nation's post-election renaissance may be slowing. However all of these observations are couched in the context of very noisy and somewhat contradictory voting intention data from the various polling firms.
The remarkable thing in the latest batch of polls is the continued rise of the One Nation Party.
