Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Steady as she goes - Coalition on 46.2 per cent

Today's Essential poll (Coalition 46 v 54 Labor) has not substantially changed the Bayesian poll aggregation. I have the Coalition on 46.2 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, roughly where it has been for about two months now. If an election were held now, it is highly likely that Labor would win with a sizable majority.



Turning to my quick and dirty aggregation of primary votes, we can see that Labor is maintaining a higher primary vote share under Morrison than it did under Turnbull, and the Coalition is maintaining a lower vote share under Morrison.









The implied two-party preferred vote share from these models is very similar to the straight aggregation above.