Because the reaction to the May Budget appears to have been both quick and significant, I have loosened the day-to-day innovation term in my Gaussian random walk model from 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points. This term is the standard deviation of the day-to-day change in underlying voting intention: a larger value lets the modelled series move more rapidly in response to genuine shifts. It also means the model is less able to filter out noise, and the median lines will not be as smooth as they were previously.
Primary votes
The aggregation tells a story of a fracturing major-party vote. Labor's primary has fallen almost continuously across the year, sliding from the high 30s to a current median of 27.9 percent, well below its 34.6 percent result at the 2025 election and the lowest point in the series. The Coalition has fared no better, drifting down from around 30 percent to 20.6 percent, with a notable step-change late in the year and only a brief plateau through autumn before resuming its decline.
The clear beneficiary is One Nation, whose primary has surged from roughly 8 percent to 28.5 percent, overtaking both major parties at the very end of the period and tracking above its 6.4 percent election result by a wide margin. The Greens have been broadly stable in a narrow band, lifting modestly to about 12.5 percent, while the "Others" vote has eased from the mid-teens to around 10.8 percent. In short, support has drained out of both Labor and the Coalition and flowed substantially to One Nation, leaving a contest where three forces now sit within roughly seven points of one another rather than the familiar two-party structure.
