Betting Market Update

Probabilities

The probability chart tells a story of steady erosion. For most of 2025, Labor sat comfortably above 70 percent, a position that looked close to unassailable. From early 2026 that lead began to slide, gently at first and then sharply, and the latest reading puts Labor at just 46.3 percent. The Coalition has firmed over the same stretch, lifting from the mid-20s to 30.5 percent. The most striking move belongs to "Any Other Result", which climbed from near zero to 23.2 percent. The market is no longer pricing a comfortable Labor victory. It is pricing genuine uncertainty, including a real chance of an outcome that suits neither major grouping.

Note: I have filled the odd one-day gap in data capture with the previous day's value. 

Odds