Friday, January 21, 2022

First Roy Morgan Poll for 2022

Yesterday Roy Morgan (RM) published its first poll for 2022, with the poll in the field between 4 and 16 January. By its own reckoning RM has the current two party preferred (2pp) voting intention at 44 to 56 per cent in Labor's favor. Using the preference flows from the 2019 election and RM's primary vote estimates, I calculate the 2pp voting intention at 45.8 to 54.2 per cent. If this was repeated at an election it would see a landslide win for Labor.

The exponentially weighted polling averages are as follows:


The Bayesian aggregation of the 2pp polling trend across all pollsters is as follows:

The primary vote estimates, follow. RM is more favourable to the Greens than other pollsters, and it sees a high Other Party vote. 




The Bayesian aggregation of relative pollster biases and the primary votes follow.









Thursday, January 20, 2022

Resolve Strategic - first poll for 2022

The January 11-15 Resolve Strategic (RS) poll was published in the Fairfax press on Tuesday this week. It was significant for two reasons:

  • Up until this poll, RS had been fairly supportive of the Coalition. This poll places it more in line with the other pollsters suggesting that Labor has a significant lead in the polls this election year.
  • It found very high support for the non-mainstream parties.

RS does not publish a two-party preferred estimate. Based on 2019 preference flows, I estimate this poll as 47-53 in Labor's favour. The next two charts aggregate the polls using an exponential weighted average with a 30 day half-life for the individual polls. After that I have my usual state-space model aggregation of the two-party preferred voting intention. This Bayesian model assumes that the voting intention on any day is much like the day before (i.e., it behaves like a Gaussian random walk), and that the individual systemic pollster biases sum to zero (or cancel each other out).


In terms of the primary votes, RS has a substantially higher other party vote than the other pollsters. It also has a much lower vote for Labor. RS is much closer to the other pollsters in terms of the Greens and somewhat closer with the Coalition. The stark differences between pollsters on the primary votes is something I find a little uncomfortable.


 

Updated primary vote poll aggregations follow.




Tuesday, January 4, 2022

PyMC

I have moved to PyMC as my tool of choice for solving Bayesian hierarchical models. I use these models to aggregate opinion polling. 

Resolve Strategic, a new entrant in publicly available opinion polling, have a very different take on the electorate to the other pollsters. As can be seen from the pollster bias charts, RS sees a world where Labor's primary vote has collapsed, and the minor parties are resurgent. As a result, its polls suggest a close election, with the Coalition a nose in front. The other three pollsters have Labor in front, with Morgan and Newspoll putting Labor a long way in front.

The latest aggregations follow ...











Notes: