Showing posts with label Outcome model. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Outcome model. Show all posts

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Modelling the 2022 Election - Closer than we first thought?

Recently in a conversation with Ethan from Armarium Interreta, he made the observation that the polls in the final week of a campaign were (on average) more accurate than the polls in the final two weeks of the campaign. This is critical because we are seeing a tightening in the most recent polls. [Note: things might not stay this way as more polls come in, but this is how it looks now].

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Modelling the 2022 election - Part II

Most of my refinements since yesterday's post have been to correct minor glitches in the code, and data transformations to make it work better with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method that is used in the PyMC software. But in broad terms the model is conceptually unchanged.