Tuesday, April 30, 2019

National betting market update

This morning's read from prediction markets for the Federal election outcome shows a marked change on yesterday. Yesterday I had the mean Coalition win probability across the three houses I follow (Beteasy, Ladbrokes and Sportsbet) at 25.3 per cent. This morning it had jumped to 29.2 per cent.

If we turn to the specific data for yesterday and this morning, we can the change occurred in each of the three markets.

Date House Coalition ($) Labor ($) Coalition Win Probability
2019-04-29 Ladbrokes 3.5 1.3 0.2708
2019-04-29 BetEasy 3.9 1.25 0.2427
2019-04-29 Sportsbet 3.85 1.25 0.2451
2019-04-30 Ladbrokes 3.15 1.35 0.3
2019-04-30 BetEasy 3.3 1.33 0.2873
2019-04-30 Sportsbet 3.3 1.33 0.2873

A comparison with where the betting markets were on the morning of 11 April, when the election was called, suggests that punters think Scott Morrison has improved his chances of winning over the campaign to date.

Date House Coalition ($) Labor ($) Coalition Win Probability
2019-04-11 Ladbrokes 4.75 1.17 0.1976
2019-04-11 BetEasy 5 1.16 0.1883
2019-04-11 Sportsbet 4.85 1.16 0.1930

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Individual seat betting update

This week the candidates were declared in each seat. We have had some small movements on the individual seat prediction markets since I last reported on Tuesday. In terms of the favourites, the changes since Tuesday are:

  • the Coalition is up by two seats: in Indi (Vic) and Herbert (Qld)
  • Independents are down one: Helen Haines (Independent) is no longer the favourite in Indi,
  • the Labor Party is down by one: in Herbert.

On the summed probabilities, Labor is down from 87.5 to 86.4, and the Coalition is up from 55.1 to 56.3.

The full table of seat probabilities follows.

And the individual seat probabilities over time follow.