Poll aggregation update

The campaign kicked off on Thursday 11 April, and last night we saw the first official poll of the campaign. Over the past two weeks, we have had a full plate of polls. These have been among the best polls of Scott Morrison's tenure. [Acknowledgement: I collect my poll data from Wikipedia]

	Mid-date	Firm	L/NP	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	TPP L/NP	TPP ALP
0	2019-04-12	Newspoll	39.0	39.0	9.0	4.0	9.0	48.0	52.0
1	2019-04-06	Essential	38.0	35.0	11.0	5.0	10.0	48.0	52.0
2	2019-04-06	Roy Morgan	37.0	35.0	13.5	4.0	10.5	47.5	52.5
3	2019-04-05	Newspoll	38.0	37.0	9.0	6.0	10.0	48.0	52.0
4	2019-04-04	Ipsos	37.0	34.0	13.0	5.0	11.0	47.0	53.0

Putting the latest poll into my Bayesian aggregation yields the same result I had last week: Labor has 52.6 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. The Coalition has 47.4 per cent. If an election were held last weekend, Labor would have won that election.

We can compare this aggregation with an ensemble of moving averages. The moving averages suggest that there may be upside movement not evident in the latest polls.

The primary vote aggregations are consistent with the TPP aggregations above.