Primary votes
While it looks like Labor and the Coalition have each fallen a similar amount in the polls, around 7 and 7.3 percentage points respectively, this comparison uses each party's mid-2025 polling level as the starting point. A fairer benchmark is the 2025 election result, which is what each party actually achieved at the ballot box. Measured this way, the picture changes sharply. Labor won 34.6 percent in 2025 and now sits at 29.5 percent, a loss of about 5 points. The Coalition won 31.8 percent and has fallen to 22.4 percent, a collapse of more than 9 points. The reason for the difference is that Labor was polling above its election result through mid-2025 (a post-Election honeymoon) and only later sank below it. The Coalition, by contrast, was already polling below its 31.8 percent election result from the outset and kept falling from there. So although the two parties have shed a similar amount in the polls since mid-2025, the Coalition's decline relative to its actual electoral support is nearly double Labor's, and One Nation has absorbed almost all of the combined loss, rising from 6.4 percent at the election to 25.3 percent today.
