Saturday, August 4, 2018

Polling aggregation update

The three most recent polls have the Coalition with 49 per cent and Labor with 51 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. My Bayesian polling aggregation model has the Coalition with 48.3 per cent to Labor with 51.7 per cent.

If we look at our moving average aggregations, these models have all moved away from the Bayesian model over the recent period. They are all more supportive of the Coalition's most recent poll results.

If we turn to the primary vote share model.

The Other vote share decline in 2018 may be connected with the fortunes of One Nation.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Punters largely unmoved by the by-elections

Last Saturday's by-election results have not really shifted punter sentiments. The punters think Shorten and Labor more likely to win the next Federal election, but it is actually a reasonably close race. This has not changed hugely since mid April 2018.

When I look at betting markets, I tend to treat any movement of less than five percentage points as not significant. The bookmaker's over-round and the reality that these are thin markets means that small movements of one or two percentage points are more likely to be noise rather than signal.

If we average the house results for a clearer picture, we can see that the mean win probability for the Coalition since I have been following this matter has largely been between 35 and 40 per cent. (ignoring the fact that I did not collect odds in the first two weeks of July while I was taking a holiday).

The raw charts follow.