Saturday, August 4, 2018

Polling aggregation update

The three most recent polls have the Coalition with 49 per cent and Labor with 51 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. My Bayesian polling aggregation model has the Coalition with 48.3 per cent to Labor with 51.7 per cent.

If we look at our moving average aggregations, these models have all moved away from the Bayesian model over the recent period. They are all more supportive of the Coalition's most recent poll results.

If we turn to the primary vote share model.

The Other vote share decline in 2018 may be connected with the fortunes of One Nation.

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