Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Resolve Strategic 46.9/53.1 in Labor's favor

Opps, I messed yesterday's Resolve Strategic poll over 15-20 February 2022, published in the Sydney Morning Herald. Resolve did not give a 2pp estimate. My calculation based on Resolve's primary vote estimates and the preference flows at the last election has Labor on 53.1 per cent and the Coalition on 46.9 per cent. If an election was held now, this poll points to a compelling Labor win.

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Essential 46.4/53.6 and Roy Morgan 44.8/55.2

Two new polls are out today. Adjusting for undecideds, and using preference flows from the 2019 election, I have them as follows:

  • Essential, 17-20 February 2022, with a two-party preferred estimate of 46.4 to 53.6 in Labor's favour
  • Roy Morgan, 31 January to 13 February 2022, with a two-party preferred estimate of 44.8 to 55.2 in Labor's favour

Both polls suggest a landslide win for Labor if an election were held now.

The 2pp charts continue to look ugly for the Coalition.

The primary vote estimates from pollsters follow.


Monday, February 14, 2022

Newspoll 55 to 45 in Labor's favour

The latest Newspoll, which was sampled between 9 and 12 February 2022, gave Labor a two-party preferred vote share of 55 per cent to the Coalition's 45. When I adjust the primary vote estimates for preference flows at the 2019 election, I get a 2pp estimate of 55.1 to 44.9 per cent in Labor's favour. If an election was held with this outcome, it would see a landslide win for Labor. 

Newspoll continues to be the pollster most favourable for Labor and least favourable for the Coalition. 

The primary vote estimates follow. The wide spread between pollsters in respect of the Labor and other party primary votes continues.

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Four Essential polls

Yesterday Essential released four polls covering the periods: 1-5 December 2021, 8-13 December2021, 20-23 January 2022 and 2-6 February 2022. All of the polls had Labor ahead in 2pp terms. The most recent poll estimated two party preferred voting intentions as follows:  Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8). Essential is now the pollster most favourable to the Coalition.

Essential's primary vote estimates are not showing the same movements as the other pollsters.