Saturday, April 27, 2019

Individual seat betting update

This week the candidates were declared in each seat. We have had some small movements on the individual seat prediction markets since I last reported on Tuesday. In terms of the favourites, the changes since Tuesday are:

  • the Coalition is up by two seats: in Indi (Vic) and Herbert (Qld)
  • Independents are down one: Helen Haines (Independent) is no longer the favourite in Indi,
  • the Labor Party is down by one: in Herbert.

On the summed probabilities, Labor is down from 87.5 to 86.4, and the Coalition is up from 55.1 to 56.3.

The full table of seat probabilities follows.

And the individual seat probabilities over time follow.

1 comment:

  1. The change in Bass (TAS) is stark. Do you have the raw odds from 14/4 to present, which illustrate the change?