Poll aggregation

With only a few days to go before an election is called, let's look at the latest polling data aggregation. The Bayesian aggregation has the Coalition with 47.4 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. With 52.6 per cent of the TPP vote share, Labor would win an election if it were held now.

While the Coalition has improved slightly over recent months, the rate of change at 0.2 or perhaps 0.3 percentage points improvement each month is not sufficient to make a significant difference by the middle of May when the election will be held.

We can compare the Bayesian aggregation with an ensemble of moving averages (which have been adjusted for house effects). These also show a small improvement over recent months.

Turning to the primary vote share aggregations, there are a few points to note. The Coalition's primary vote is improving, but it remains below where it was under Malcolm Turnbull immediately before the leadership change. Labor's primary vote is starting to wane. The Green primary vote share is hovering around 10 per cent, while the other parties share is around 15 per cent.

Comparing the primary votes for Labor and the Coalition, the Coalition is in front.

And we can see how the Coalition TPP vote share is looking under different preference flow assumptions (drawing on the preference flows from previous elections.