State of the House (10am Tuesday)

Using the latest data from the Australian Electoral Commission, this is my take on the official count.

Let's start by allocating those seats where the two-candidate preferred vote (2cp) is higher than 51.5 per cent, and where the official 2cp count is greater than 50 per cent of enrolments in the division.

This allocates 71 seats to Labor: Adelaide, Ballarat, Barton, Bean, Bendigo, Blair, Blaxland, Boothby, Brand, Bruce, Burt, Calwell, Chifley, Chisholm, Cooper, Corangamite, Corio, Cowan, Cunningham, Dobell, Dunkley, Eden-Monaro, Fenner, Franklin, Fraser, Fremantle, Gorton, Grayndler, Greenway, Hasluck, Hawke, Higgins, Hindmarsh, Holt, Hotham, Hunter, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Kingsford Smith, Kingston, Lalor, Lilley, Macarthur, Macnamara, Macquarie, Makin, Maribyrnong, McEwen, McMahon, Moreton, Newcastle, Oxley, Parramatta, Paterson, Pearce, Perth, Rankin, Reid, Richmond, Robertson, Scullin, Shortland, Solomon, Spence, Swan, Sydney, Tangney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam, and Wills.

It allocates 46 seats to the Coalition: Aston, Banks, Barker, Berowra, Bonner, Bowman, Braddon, Canning, Capricornia, Cook, Cowper, Dawson, Dickson, Durack, Fadden, Fairfax, Farrer, Fisher, Flinders, Flynn, Forde, Forrest, Gippsland, Groom, Herbert, Hughes, Hume, La Trobe, Leichhardt, Lindsay, Longman, Lyne, Mallee, McPherson, Mitchell, Monash, Moncrieff, New England, Nicholls, O'Connor, Page, Parkes, Petrie, Riverina, Wide Bay, and Wright.

And it allocates 12 seats to the cross-bench: Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kennedy, Kooyong, Mackellar, Mayo, North Sydney, Warringah, and Wentworth.

It leaves us with 22 seats where either the count is close or the official 2cp counts is not well progressed. [In the case of Brisbane and Wannon, the official 2cp count has not (re-)started].

Some of these we can clear up quickly. Based on first preference votes, and likely preference allocations, we can add the following seats to the Coalition, bringing the Coalition to 56

• Wannon will be retained by the Coalition.
  
• Maranoa is on the list above because of a TCP realignment. It will go to the Coalition.
• Wannon is on the list above because of a TCP realignment. It will go to the Coalition.
• Bradfield, similarly, will be retained by the Coalition.
• Calare will be retained by the Coalition.
• Hinkler will be retained by the Coalition 
• Grey should be held by the Coalition 
• Casey should be retained by the Coalition
• Moore should be retained by the Coalition 
• Menzies should be retained by the Coalition
  

We can add the following seats to Labor, bringing the Labor total to 75

• Canberra will be retained by Labor
• Gelibrand will be retained by Labor
• Lingiari will be retained by Labor
• Benelong should be won by Labor
  

 And we can these seats to the cross-bench, bringing its total to 14.

• No-one doubts that Melbourne will be won by the Greens
• The Greens are well placed to win Griffith

From here the landscape is a little less clear. The Coalition may pick up these two seats bringing them to 58 seats.

• Bass is a possible Coalition win, but if not this will go to Labor.
• Sturt is a possible Coalition win, but otherwise it will go to Labor
  

Labor are in the running to win one more seat, bringing their total to 76 seats.

•  Labor is ahead in Lyons, but if not this will go to the Coalition.
  

The Greens are in the running to pick one more seat, bringing the cross-bench to 15 seats.

• The Greens look ahead in Brisbane, if not Labor will win this seat.
  

Unknown

• Gilmore is just too close to speculate (but it is between the Coalition and Labor)
• Deakin is just too close to speculate (but it is between the Coalition and Labor)

In summary, the likely outcome is:

• Labor is likely to win 76 seats (could get as high as 78 or 79)
• The Coalition are likely to get 58 seats (could get as high as 60 seats).
• The cross-bench is likely to win 15 seats.