Poll update Monday May 9

Two polls were released in the past 24 hours. Ipsos has Labor on 57 to 43 per cent of the two-party preferred (2pp) vote. A Labor win of this magnitude would be record breaking for Labor; the Coalition won 56.9 per cent of the two party vote in 1966 with a rally-to-the-flag election on Australia's participation in the Vietnam war.

Newspoll has Labor well ahead with 54 to 46 per cent of the 2pp vote.  If this was repeated at the election, Labor would have a comfortable win. 

The aggregate polls show a movement to Labor over the past week.

 

With the latest Ipsos poll, any concerns I might of had about the polls being in a narrow range (collectively) are no longer there. I cannot use the Chi-squared statistic to reject the null hypothesis that the polls (collectively) have the expected variance. Collectively, the polls are not under-dispersed. 

A number of people have developed probability models for the election outcome. The most likely outcome from each of these models (at 2pm on Monday 9 May) is reasonably similar:

• Buckley's and None: Labor has a 70% probability for forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.

• Australian Election Forecasts: Labor has an 73% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has a 5% chance of majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.

• Armarium Interreta: Labor has a 68% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 24% probability for a minority government.