Election day - betting markets

There are two posts this morning. This is the betting market post, and separately there is a polls update.

National Winner

At 6.30am this morning, the betting market at Sportsbet was firmly of the view that the Labor Party will provide the Prime Minister in the new Parliament. The odds for a Coalition win were \$9.30 (down from \$11.00 yesterday). The odds for a Labor win were \$1.08 (up from \$1.06 yesterday).  The probability of a Labor win was 89.6 per cent - down from 91.2 per cent yesterday.

Individual seats

At 7am this morning, on the seats market at Sportsbet, Labor was the favourite to win in 77 seats, giving it majority government.

When we sum the probabilities across all seats to see the most-likely Parliament from the punters perspective, Labor wins minority government with 73 seats.

For each seat over the campaign, the odds and probabilities were as follows. We will start with the odds. You can jump to the probabilities.

Odds

Seat win probabilities

Seat probabilities in aggregate