Federal polls - quick update

The NT election result (convincing Coalition win) has not changed the betting odds at SportsBet for the next Federal election.

August polling update

The betting market remains largely unchanged this year. Labor remains the favourite to form government after the next election. Based on the latest polling, most pundits believe that will be a minority government, with the support of the cross-bench independents and/or the Greens. 

Labor is ahead in the Bayesian aggregation of the two-party preferred polling. It is just behind in the localised regression model. The localised regression can be overly influenced by data points at the end of the series. 

On the primary votes, the Coalition has improved over recent months. Its vote share is above that obtained at the previous election. Labor's vote share is slowly declining and is below that of the previous election.

The Greens and other parties primary vote has declined a little over recent months. The Greens are above their primary vote share at the previous election. Other are below their primary vote share at the previous election. 

The attitudinal polling follows. While Albanese remains the preferred Prime Minister, Dutton has better net favourability.