Today the individual seats market has Labor ahead (the favourite) in 75 seats. But the sum of probabilities suggest that Labor most likely will only win 71 seats (after giving Labor and the Coalition one each from the "any other candidate" grouping, which remains overstated even after treating the odds to partially correct for the favourite-longshot bias problem).
Recent movers include:
Meanwhile the overall market softened just a touch ob Labor, but Labor remains the sure favourite.
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