Betting market update

From time-to-time I have been looking at Centrebet's individual seats betting market. In this morning's 9.30am run, you will note that Centrebet did not have odds for the WA seat of Durack. However, in previous runs, Durack was the safest Coalition seat at Centrebet. For the purpose of today's exercise we will treat it similarly.

The total predicted seats for each party, assuming the favourite in each seat wins, is as follows.

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	91	57	2

The seat-by-seat probabilities follow.

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Parramatta	NSW	43.3	49.5	7.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Kingsford Smith	NSW	50.5	45.3	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lyons	TAS	43.7	50.8	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Brand	WA	44.8	51.2	4.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Lingiari	NT	52.3	40.2	7.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	54.8	42.1	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hindmarsh	SA	55.6	40.4	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	39.2	56.4	4.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Page	NSW	56.7	38.2	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Blair	QLD	57.8	38.9	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	58.3	38.0	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	60.1	34.2	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	60.6	35.1	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	61.8	31.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	64.6	30.1	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	65.6	30.5	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McMahon	NSW	67.3	29.6	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Indi	VIC	4.1	68.1	27.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	20.9	68.5	10.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	69.0	23.9	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Greenway	NSW	28.1	69.1	2.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	26.2	69.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Solomon	NT	25.1	69.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	22.4	69.9	7.6	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Hasluck	WA	26.4	70.2	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	70.4	2.6	27.0	Other	Labor	TRUE
Adelaide	SA	70.9	23.1	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	22.9	71.3	5.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
La Trobe	VIC	23.2	71.3	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Banks	NSW	21.9	73.0	5.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bendigo	VIC	73.1	20.3	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Forde	QLD	21.9	73.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	73.3	20.4	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Reid	NSW	21.7	73.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Longman	QLD	20.7	74.4	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Rankin	QLD	74.8	20.8	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	75.2	18.0	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Herbert	QLD	18.2	75.8	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wakefield	SA	76.6	17.5	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	14.3	76.8	8.9	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Leichhardt	QLD	16.5	77.3	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Swan	WA	18.6	77.5	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Casey	VIC	14.4	78.5	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	14.7	80.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corangamite	VIC	12.3	80.3	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Deakin	VIC	13.3	80.3	6.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Braddon	TAS	14.8	80.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Dunkley	VIC	12.3	80.6	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canning	WA	14.8	80.8	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	13.9	4.9	81.2	Other	Other	FALSE
Gilmore	NSW	12.4	81.3	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fadden	QLD	10.0	81.4	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bowman	QLD	13.5	81.4	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	81.7	15.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	8.5	81.9	9.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	5.1	81.9	13.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	11.6	82.4	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Stirling	WA	10.8	82.5	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.3	11.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	83.3	12.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bass	TAS	11.8	83.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	10.3	83.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sturt	SA	11.0	83.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	83.9	10.9	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	11.9	84.2	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	11.1	84.6	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	9.8	85.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	85.1	5.7	9.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canberra	ACT	85.3	8.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	85.5	9.8	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Boothby	SA	8.9	86.3	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	87.2	8.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
New England	NSW	4.2	88.2	7.5	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	89.4	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	4.1	5.1	90.8	Other	Other	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	0.0	100.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

Applying the cube law to convert the seats won prediction from the betting market to an estimate of the two-party preferred vote for Labor, we get a result of 46.16 percent for Labor.

Of note elsewhere: Simon Jackman said "the betting markets are posting prices I've never seen".