2012 Dem 65918507 Rep 60934407 Other 2384728 Total 129237642 2016 Dem 65223761 Rep 62676271 Other 7919530 Total 135819562
Clinton won the popular vote (she is currently up by some 2.5 million votes nationally). However, the US Electoral College system gives additional voting weight to the less populous states. As a result, Trump will win the election. In the following maps the Republicans are in red and the Democrats in blue.
For me the big story is the growth in the other party vote. In the US system of first-past-the post voting, these are largely wasted votes. My contention is that these votes were largely lost from Democrat voters, and they cost Clinton the election.
The first chart following is percentage point change in the other parties vote (without Utah, because it was a special case). The second chart is the percentage change in the number of votes cast for other parties (without Oklahoma, because there were no other party votes in 2012). The final chart is the vote share for other parties
The Democrat count is clearly down in the industrial mid-west. The first chart following is the vote share for the Democrats in each state. The second chart is the change in vote share (in percentage points) from 2012 to 2016. The final chart is the change in raw vote count from 2012 to 2016 (expressed as a percent of the 2012 vote count).
For the Republicans, the story is a mixed bag: votes were up in the mid-west (but a close result), but down in Texas, and the west of the country.
Given the size of the margins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it is highly unlikely that the proposed recounts will change the election outcome.
The more detailed analysis follows ...
Percentage change in raw vote count 2012 to 2016
Delta_turnout Delta_Rep Delta_Dem Delta_Other \
State
Alabama 2.363838 4.962876 -8.313351 232.658362
Alaska 6.027721 -0.782749 -5.044031 194.157372
Arizona 12.892191 1.519632 13.258950 299.297296
Arkansas 5.719386 5.731894 -3.528064 138.949295
California 6.237405 -9.226299 9.256438 147.651367
Colorado 8.102040 1.454470 1.191745 276.161005
Connecticut 5.511699 6.034976 -0.832717 290.481959
Delaware 6.684609 11.870030 -2.877766 256.398428
District of Columbia 5.958525 -40.493896 5.901075 195.783926
Florida 11.803749 10.914970 6.305672 308.597151
Georgia 4.707949 0.501085 5.870697 124.345615
Hawaii -1.325061 6.471925 -12.967866 372.650911
Idaho 5.130021 -2.816747 -10.819270 297.556848
Illinois 5.819346 0.251918 2.123886 244.135713
Indiana 4.072623 9.447582 -9.975526 157.075505
Iowa -1.020680 9.631038 -20.530817 283.814053
Kansas 2.321232 -2.724087 -2.933113 210.544670
Kentucky 7.013217 10.649564 -7.435712 193.203760
Louisiana 1.753554 2.289063 -3.582441 115.051130
Maine 3.292296 13.793469 -12.165530 163.210532
Maryland 2.718068 -2.953073 0.004887 177.396119
Massachusetts 4.964980 -8.209532 3.821235 315.245195
Michigan 1.136468 7.766767 -11.531372 283.049579
Minnesota 0.281009 0.206480 -11.541509 262.191281
Mississippi -5.924778 -1.542886 -13.947267 111.985869
Missouri 0.464235 6.969118 -13.801892 136.501140
Montana 2.072514 4.222030 -11.955073 155.323775
Nebraska 3.935905 4.171438 -6.209924 175.281420
Nevada 10.884328 10.460408 1.484268 270.742817
New Hampshire 4.670929 4.810892 -5.691888 333.872792
New Jersey 6.481592 7.855897 0.484856 240.650051
New Mexico 1.857846 -4.801244 -7.247403 186.259729
New York 0.445977 6.002740 -7.498578 207.735610
North Carolina 5.244450 4.065460 0.503078 235.077581
North Dakota 6.736262 15.216063 -24.889647 250.814569
Ohio -0.972467 6.747032 -15.332023 196.100719
Oklahoma 8.848788 6.485962 -5.224249 inf
Oregon 13.127253 3.620512 3.025488 275.844723
Pennsylvania 6.733714 10.532324 -2.476629 211.175099
Rhode Island 4.051797 14.845678 -9.715493 238.950698
South Carolina 7.072335 7.814528 -1.220406 247.749887
South Dakota 1.712959 8.114999 -19.027296 204.971834
Tennessee 1.214797 4.023169 -9.526298 165.279282
Texas 12.120132 2.520962 17.222571 233.890213
Utah 11.819337 -30.430597 23.375680 1009.438273
Vermont 5.271476 2.881400 -10.372467 459.295526
Virginia 3.327627 -2.912393 0.489548 285.448983
Washington 4.733566 -5.340095 -0.722230 230.766228
West Virginia 7.190393 17.050915 -20.853741 165.495523
Wisconsin -3.034805 -0.281683 -14.754116 379.928070
Wyoming 2.725437 2.022087 -19.214560 188.857370
Two-party swing from 2012 to 2016 (in percentage points)
Swing
State
Alabama 5.538357
Alaska 0.741723
Arizona -5.532347
Arkansas 3.233032
California -7.105616
Colorado 0.454655
Connecticut 3.692955
Delaware 7.196230
District of Columbia -3.141525
Florida 2.064246
Georgia -2.640832
Hawaii 10.523484
Idaho 0.070853
Illinois -0.131217
Indiana 8.708025
Iowa 15.216986
Kansas -0.986894
Kentucky 7.156187
Louisiana 2.432006
Maine 12.587298
Maryland -0.344963
Massachusetts -4.047876
Michigan 9.691593
Minnesota 6.173972
Mississippi 6.309379
Missouri 9.761118
Montana 6.889904
Nebraska 3.847604
Nevada 4.263805
New Hampshire 5.208235
New Jersey 3.802922
New Mexico 1.936178
New York 6.955795
North Carolina 1.613738
North Dakota 16.097549
Ohio 11.044685
Oklahoma 2.846545
Oregon 1.301234
Pennsylvania 6.140685
Rhode Island 11.952107
South Carolina 3.792815
South Dakota 11.772774
Tennessee 5.791648
Texas -6.772736
Utah -29.960350
Vermont 9.189564
Virginia -1.450352
Washington -1.039399
West Virginia 14.991171
Wisconsin 7.687638
Wyoming 5.471542
Percentage point change in party vote share by state from 2012 to 2016
Democrats Republicans Others
State
Alabama -4.001087 1.537270 2.463817
Alaska -4.261788 -3.520065 7.781853
Arizona 0.144402 -5.387945 5.243542
Arkansas -3.225866 0.007166 3.218700
California 1.709594 -5.396021 3.686427
Colorado -3.288600 -2.833946 6.122546
Connecticut -3.490983 0.201972 3.289011
Delaware -5.253016 1.943215 3.309801
District of Columbia -0.049292 -3.190817 3.240109
Florida -2.453982 -0.389737 2.843719
Georgia 0.503990 -2.136842 1.632853
Hawaii -8.323739 2.199746 6.123993
Idaho -4.915469 -4.844615 9.760084
Illinois -2.007994 -2.139211 4.147205
Indiana -5.917216 2.790808 3.126408
Iowa -10.247527 4.969459 5.278069
Kansas -1.951559 -2.938453 4.890012
Kentucky -5.101564 2.054623 3.046941
Louisiana -2.127898 0.304109 1.823789
Maine -8.420870 4.166428 4.254442
Maryland -1.636978 -1.981941 3.618919
Massachusetts -0.661045 -4.708921 5.369966
Michigan -6.769304 2.922289 3.847016
Minnesota -6.207385 -0.033413 6.240798
Mississippi -3.734242 2.575137 1.159105
Missouri -6.288028 3.473090 2.814938
Montana -5.725321 1.164583 4.560738
Nebraska -3.712082 0.135522 3.576560
Nevada -4.438426 -0.174620 4.613046
New Hampshire -5.146185 0.062050 5.084135
New Jersey -3.280196 0.522727 2.757469
New Mexico -4.737121 -2.800942 7.538063
New York -5.010221 1.945574 3.064648
North Carolina -2.178262 -0.564523 2.742785
North Dakota -11.464071 4.633479 6.830592
Ohio -7.333907 3.710778 3.623129
Oklahoma -4.296000 -1.449455 5.745455
Oregon -4.843333 -3.542099 8.385431
Pennsylvania -4.483251 1.657433 2.825818
Rhode Island -8.296083 3.656024 4.640058
South Carolina -3.414614 0.378201 3.036412
South Dakota -8.129091 3.643683 4.485409
Tennessee -4.142874 1.648774 2.494100
Texas 1.881935 -4.890801 3.008866
Utah 2.549265 -27.411084 24.861819
Vermont -9.892764 -0.703200 10.595965
Virginia -1.405104 -2.855456 4.260560
Washington -2.906661 -3.946060 6.852722
West Virginia -9.274864 5.716307 3.558557
Wisconsin -6.384816 1.302822 5.081994
Wyoming -5.941530 -0.469989 6.411519
Party vote share by state (per cent)
Dem_2016_p Rep_2016_p Other_2016_p
State
Alabama 34.357946 62.083092 3.558962
Alaska 36.550871 51.281512 12.167617
Arizona 44.592951 48.096662 7.310387
Arkansas 33.653124 60.574102 5.772774
California 61.868880 31.675261 6.455860
Colorado 48.157015 43.251357 8.591628
Connecticut 54.566301 40.926914 4.506785
Delaware 53.353337 41.922824 4.723839
District of Columbia 90.863822 4.087474 5.048704
Florida 47.447910 48.637126 3.914964
Georgia 45.889341 51.048719 3.061940
Hawaii 62.221492 30.038677 7.739831
Idaho 27.484926 59.246154 13.268920
Illinois 55.490837 38.520480 5.988684
Indiana 37.919180 56.827828 5.252992
Iowa 41.740489 51.147327 7.112184
Kansas 36.052401 56.654630 7.292969
Kentucky 32.682188 62.519639 4.798173
Louisiana 38.449566 58.088685 3.461749
Maine 47.849076 45.148508 7.002416
Maryland 60.337213 33.915792 5.746995
Massachusetts 60.005065 32.808358 7.186577
Michigan 47.274915 47.497950 5.227135
Minnesota 46.444919 44.924788 8.630293
Mississippi 40.055118 57.860984 2.083898
Missouri 37.993221 57.112989 4.893790
Montana 35.935291 56.466306 7.598403
Nebraska 34.315232 59.938715 5.746053
Nevada 47.917824 45.500695 6.581481
New Hampshire 46.833499 46.465846 6.700655
New Jersey 54.964900 41.023748 4.011351
New Mexico 48.255708 40.042439 11.701853
New York 58.335880 37.114441 4.549678
North Carolina 46.172707 49.828541 3.998752
North Dakota 27.226739 62.955628 9.817633
Ohio 43.242777 51.313504 5.443719
Oklahoma 28.931680 65.322865 5.745455
Oregon 49.395994 38.607773 11.996233
Pennsylvania 47.470735 48.228159 4.301106
Rhode Island 54.404876 38.899686 6.695438
South Carolina 40.673420 54.939333 4.387248
South Dakota 31.737050 61.532994 6.729956
Tennessee 34.895991 61.071247 4.032762
Texas 43.235258 52.234686 4.530056
Utah 27.215993 45.135521 27.648486
Vermont 56.677786 30.269435 13.052779
Virginia 49.751353 44.427647 5.821000
Washington 52.891795 37.080234 10.027971
West Virginia 26.175555 67.856345 5.968100
Wisconsin 46.442946 47.188313 6.368742
Wyoming 21.877357 68.172633 9.950010
A quick acknowledgement: I sourced the data for this analysis from http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.
No comments:
Post a Comment