Weekly update on the individual seat prediction markets

The individual seat markets provide a window on how punters think the election race is progressing. At the moment, Labor is the favourite in 91 seats at Sportsbet. Last week it was the favourite in 94 seats. Last week the Coalition was favoured in 51 seats, this week it is 54 seats. The Coalition gained three from Labor (Bass (Tas), Brisbane (Qld) and Page (NSW)), although in Brisbane (Qld) it is only a minority favourite.

We can see a similar outcome over the week in the summed probabilities approach to reckoning the election outcome from individual seat prediction markets. Today, the most likely Labor outcome at the election according to the betting markets is Labor with 88 seats. Last week that was 89.5 seats. The most likely Coalition outcome is 54.5 seats. Last week that was 52.9 seats.

Let's look at the individual seats. Note: At the end of the long list of charts I have identified the seats that look mispriced to me.

Are some seats mispriced?

At 18 per cent probability, Reid (NSW) looks too pessimistic for the Coalition in my view. In 2016, the Coalition won Reid with 54.69 per cent of the TPP vote. If you accept the Poll Bludger's NSW state-wide swing estimate of 0.6 percentage points against the Coalition, this seems too high a penalty for the retirement of the sitting member (Craig Laundy).

At 42 per cent probability, Deakin (Vic) also looks too pessimistic for the Coalition. In 2016, the Coalition won Deakin with a notional 56.44 per cent of the TPP vote. The Poll Bludger estimates the swing against the Coalition to be 3.2 percentage points across the state in Victoria.

At 49 per cent probability, Stirling (WA) is another seat that looks too pessimistic for the Coalition. In 2016, the Coalition won Stirling with 56.12 per cent of the TPP vote. The Poll Bludger estimates the state-wide swing in WA to be 3.6 percentage points against the Coalition.

At 42 per cent probability for the Coalition, Capricornia (Qld) looks too generous to the Coalition. In 2016, the Coalition won this seat with 50.63 per cent of the TPP vote. The Poll Bludger is estimating a 6.1 percentage point state-wide swing against the Coalition in Queensland.

At 56 per cent probability for Labor, Lindsay (NSW) looks too pessimistic for Labor. Labor won this seat in 2016 with 51.11 per cent of the TPP vote. The Poll Bludger estimates a state-wide swing of 0.6 percentage points to Labor in NSW.

Note: this is my assessment based on the odds as I saw them this morning. Betting odds change over time, and my observations may not be valid when you read this. You should not accept this analysis without first independently checking it for yourself. You should form your own judgements before placing any bets.  I do not accept any liability for any losses you may incur as a result of using the information in this blog post.