New polls: Newspoll and Resolve

Today's Australian had a new Newspoll (49-51 in the Coalition's favour), and the Fairfax media had a new Resolve Strategic Poll (50-50). All of my polling aggregation methods suggest that the Coalition is just ahead in the two-party-preferred voting intention metric. However, the only certainty is a hung Parliament. In this range, it is just too close to call. 

Note: in the charts above, the GRW model is a Gaussian Random Walk model where the vote-shares on any day and much the same as the vote shares on the day before. The GP model is a Gaussian Process model, where polls that are closer together in time are deemed to be more highly correlated. The GP model performs less well when the density of polling data is low (as with the first year of the series above), and at both ends of the series where it tends to revert to an underlying assumption about voting intention in the model (set to an average of the most recent 10 polls). I prefer the GRW model over the GP model. 

The primary votes are also moving around a little, with the major party votes up on recent trends, at the expense of the Greens and other minor parties.

The betting market sees the next election as pretty close to the proverbial toss-up, with the Coalition the favourite to form Government.  The gaps in the following charts are days in which I did not collect odds data from SportsBet.