Markets and polls

I have added the latest Morgen poll to the analysis (which was unchanged on the previous fortnight with the Coalition on 52.5 to Labor's 47.5). The aggregated estimate of two-party preferred voting intention for the Coalition is 52.6 per cent (assuming house effects sum to zero).

Yesterday's Newspoll weighed on betting markets. Over the past week we have the following movements in the percentage probability of a Coalition win, as implied by the odds from each bookmaker.

%	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue
Betfair	85.10	83.45	83.58	85.57	85.10	85.10	82.22	81.45
CrownBet	85.41	85.41	85.41	85.41	84.27	84.27	84.27	84.27
Ladbrokes	83.08	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03
Luxbet	88.20	87.51	81.17	86.42	86.42	86.42	83.08	83.33
Sportsbet	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	82.83
TABtouch	84.27	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83	81.17
William Hill	85.41	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15	82.71