Saturday, April 13, 2013

Countinuing our look at house bias in primary voting intention

Today I want to look at the house bias revealed by a 365 day span localised regression (LOESS). I will restrict my analysis to the most regular polling series: Essential, Morgan face-to-face, Newspoll and Nielsen. And, just in case you missed it in the heading, I will focus on the polls of primary voting intention.

We will start with the major parties. There is an interesting juxtaposition here. On the Labor side, the polling houses are more in agreement now than they were following the 2010 election. For the Coalition, it is the opposite story (well up until a couple of months ago).

The minor party charts are next. The Other primary vote series ntrigued me. It suggests there was a significant change in the Morgan face-to-face methodology in the first half of 2012. This change may also explain the growing divergence in the Coalition vote above. For the Greens, Essential's  treatment til Jul 2011 appears anomalous.

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