Monday, February 9, 2015

Newspoll 43-57

The Australian's Newspoll from 6-8 February 2015 continues the challenging numbers for the Coalition: with a two-party preferred voting intention of 43 to 57 in Labor's favour.

Dropping these numbers into the Bayesian model yields the following charts and a headline, aggregate TPP voting intention of 44.2 for the Coalition and 55.8 for Labor.

At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero.

The LOESS model yields 43.7 per cent for the Coalition and 56.3 per cent to Labor.

Both models are suggesting a sizable decline in voting intention for the Coalition since the New Year.

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