Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Updated aggregate

This week we have three new polls:

  • Ipsos has it at 47-53 in Labor's favour, a three point decline for the Coalition.
  • Morgan has it at 45.5 to 54.5 in Labor's favour, a two and a half point decline for the Coalition (based on preference flows at the last election).
  • Newspoll (the last in its current incarnation) has it at 49 to 51 in Labor's favour, a one point improvement for the Coalition.

Not surprisingly, with two polls making sizeable jumps in Labor's favour, we have seen the two-party preferred (TPP) poll aggregate collapse for the Coalition. 

What is a little harder to discern is whether this is just fortnight-to-fortnight noise, or something more significant. 

Net happiness with both the PM and Opposition Leader seems to be in decline.

Notwithstanding the latest Newspoll, Labor's primary vote appears to have stopped falling.

But the Coalition has fallen, and the Greens have increased significantly in the past couple of weeks. 

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