Friday, July 1, 2016

Aggregated polling update

On the face of it, the polls are close, albeit with the Coalition slightly ahead. In two-party preferred (TPP) terms:

  • The latest Galaxy poll (28-29 June) has the Coalition on 51 to 49 for Labor.
  • Ipsos (26-29 June) has it as a tie: with 50 per cent each to Labor and the Coalition
  • Newspoll (24-26 June) has the Coalition on 51 to 49 for Labor
  •  ReachTEL (23 June) also has the Coalition on 51 to Labor's 49

In aggregate, and assuming any house effects sum to zero, I get an aggregated poll result of 50.6 to the Coalition to 49.4 to Labor. If I anchor the TPP aggregation to the 2013 election result, I get 51.6 to the Coalition and 48.4 to Labor.





Notwithstanding the long campaign, the Coalition has improved its position in the final weeks. If the Coalition wins the election, this will challenge the conventional wisdom that governments do poorly in long campaigns (based on the experience of the 1984 election campaign).

Moving from a TPP estimate to the number of seats each party will win is extraordinary complicated this election. The biggest confounding factor is the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT). Will they win a swag of seats, a couple of seats or none? And will they change the way preferences flow? The other confounding factors are the re-emergence of the independents Windsor and Oakeshott in rural New South Wales and the good showing for the Greens in the seat of Batman.

To address these confounding factors I will model 1,000,000 election outcomes using a mix of seat swings in 138 seats and longshot bias adjusted seat odds in 12 seats (namely, Melbourne (VIC), Denison (TAS), Indi (VIC), Kennedy (QLD), Fairfax (QLD), Cowper (NSW), New England (NSW), Barker (SA), Boothby (SA), Grey (SA), Mayo (SA), and Batman (VIC)). From this Monte Carlo Simulation, I will use the most common results to forecast an election outcome.

I start with the anchored poll result above (51.6 per cent for the Coalition; which in round terms is a 1.9 percentage point swing to Labor on the 2013 election). I make adjustments for different state swings based on Newspoll data as follows (where a negative number is a greater swing to Labor and a positive number is a lesser swing to Labor).

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT
0 -0.1 1.7 -2.5 -0.8 2.5 0 0 0

The resulting analysis identifies these seats as the most likely to change hands.

TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Bonner (QLD) LNP 3.7% - Coalition Labor
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 4.3% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Forde (QLD) LNP 4.4% - Coalition Labor
Lyons (TAS) LIB 1.2% - Coalition Labor
Mayo (SA) LIB 12.5% - Coalition NXT
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor

But this analysis ignores close seats like Batman, where the incumbent (Labor) is only just ahead of the Greens according to betting markets, and the result could easily go either way. We can address this problem with a Monte Carlo simulation of the probabilities for each seat. The results of the simulation are:





My election prediction: the Monte Carlo simulation of the polls suggests the most likely outcome is 79 Coalition, 65 Labor and 6 others (comprising independents, Greens, Katter and NXT representatives).

Turning to Primary votes: the campaign has been kind to the Coalition and unkind to the Greens. Labor declined for much of the campaign, but has managed a very late and small recovery. The independent vote looks like being particularly high, and will make this an that could see some surprise upsets.





Finally, a comparison of all my models.


Betting Market Update

Only one more sleep! This morning's odds were scrapped at 5.45am. With a win probability of 87.3% on average, the betting market strongly favours the Coalition to provide the Prime Minister in the next Parliament.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-07-01 Betfair 1.13 7.46 86.85
2016-07-01 CrownBet 1.09 7.20 86.85
2016-07-01 Ladbrokes 1.08 7.50 87.41
2016-07-01 Luxbet 1.08 8.00 88.11
2016-07-01 Sportsbet 1.08 8.00 88.11
2016-07-01 William Hill 1.10 7.00 86.42

Fr 24-Jun Sa 25-Jun Su 26-Jun Mo 27-Jun Tu 28-Jun We 29-Jun Th 30-Jun Fr 1-Jul
Betfair 84.99 84.88 84.61 85.91 85.79 87.86 88.88 86.85
CrownBet 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 85.30 85.30 85.30 86.85
Ladbrokes 84.27 84.39 84.39 82.96 85.53 85.53 87.41 87.41
Luxbet 83.09 83.09 83.09 83.09 83.70 85.99 85.99 88.11
Sportsbet 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 86.42 86.42 88.11 88.11
William Hill 84.27 84.27 84.27 82.83 84.15 86.42 86.42 86.42
Average 83.67 83.67 83.63 83.37 85.15 86.25 87.02 87.29




Turning to the prediction market for individual seats ... first the odds

Missing Odds
2016-05-19 O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20 O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09 Lingiari (NT), Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10 Brisbane (QLD), Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-12 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-13 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-14 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-16 Grayndler (NSW)
2016-06-17 Mackellar (NSW)
2016-06-20 Cook (NSW)
2016-06-21 Cook (NSW)
2016-06-25 Ballarat (VIC), Bendigo (VIC), Calwell (VIC), Canning (WA), Durack (WA), Forrest (WA), Pearce (WA)
2016-06-26 Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)
2016-06-27 Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)

Latest odds
2016-07-01
Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party 101.00FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Labor1.22
Lib Dem 101.00Liberal4.00
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Aston (VIC) Animal Justice Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Family First 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Daniel Huppert) 51.00Labor12.00
Lib Dem $101.00
Ballarat (VIC) Australian Christians 151.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(BrenEckel)151.00
Labor 1.01Liberal12.00
National 26.00RiseUpAustralia151.00
Banks (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.15FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Independent(BobSpanswick)151.00
Labor $5.00
Barker (SA) Coalition 1.35FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $3.00
Barton (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition7.00
Green 51.00Independent(RasmusTorkel)151.00
Labor 1.07OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Bass (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.22Green51.00
Labor 4.00RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Batman (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianCyclists51.00
Australian Progressives (Russell Hayward) 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00Green1.90
Independent (Franco Guardiani) 51.00Independent(PhilipSutton)51.00
Labor 1.84MarriageEquality(ElizabethSyber)51.00
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bendigo (VIC) Animal Justice Party 151.00AnyOther34.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Anita Erika Donlon) 101.00Labor1.10
Liberal 6.00National16.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Bennelong (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Martin Mulcare) 51.00Labor16.00
Pirate Party $151.00
Berowra (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(MickGallagher)101.00
Labor 16.00ScienceParty151.00
Blair (QLD) Coalition 6.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JonathanEmms)151.00
Independent (Patricia Petersen) 151.00Independent(SandyTurner)151.00
Labor 1.10PaulineHanson51.00
Blaxland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Bonner (QLD) Coalition 1.12FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JarrodWirth)151.00
Labor 5.50LibDem51.00
Boothby (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.22
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Jamie Armfield) 51.00Independent(RobertdeJonge)51.00
Labor 26.00NickXenophonTeam3.50
Bowman (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00Coalition1.05
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $8.50
Braddon (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.35Green51.00
Labor 3.00LibDem51.00
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bradfield (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Christine Berman) 151.00Labor16.00
Brand (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Brisbane (QLD) Coalition 1.40FamilyFirst151.00
Green 34.00Labor2.75
Lib Dem 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Bruce (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition5.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.15
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Burt (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition3.50
Green 51.00Labor1.27
Shooters $51.00
Calare (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 101.00Independent(AnthonyCraig)151.00
Labor 21.00LibDem51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $34.00
Calwell (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Michael Amon Lakkis) 51.00Labor1.01
Canberra (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 21.00Labor1.00
Canning (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 16.00Liberal1.01
National $26.00
Capricornia (QLD) Coalition 2.60FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(KenMurray)151.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 34.00Labor1.45
Casey (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.05
Green 51.00Independent(PeterCharleton)51.00
Labor 8.50RiseUpAustralia51.00
Chifley (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AmmarKhan)151.00
Labor $1.00
Chisholm (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition2.75
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 1.40RiseUpAustralia51.00
Cook (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 16.00Independent(JohnBrett)151.00
Labor $34.00
Corangamite (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.03
Derryn Hinch 51.00DrugLawReform51.00
Family First 51.00Green46.00
Independent (Michael Lawrence) 51.00Labor10.00
Lib Dem 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Corio (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00BulletTrainForAustralia(JeffMoran)51.00
Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Labor 1.02RiseUpAustralia51.00
Socialist Alliance $51.00
Cowan (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.75
Green 51.00Labor2.00
Lib Dem 51.00MatureAustralia51.00
Shooters $51.00
Cowper (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 1.50Green51.00
Independent (John Arkan) 151.00Independent(RobOakeshott)2.50
Labor $34.00
Cunningham (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition26.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Non Custodial Parents Party 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Curtin (WA) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(SandraBoulter)51.00
Labor $16.00
Dawson (QLD) Coalition 1.10FamilyFirst151.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Large) 151.00KAP(BobKatter)41.00
Labor $6.00
Deakin (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 1.15FamilyFirst51.00
Green 34.00Labor5.00
Denison (TAS) Christian Democratic Party 51.00Coalition21.00
Democratic Labour Party 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Andrew Wilkie) 1.00Labor16.00
Dickson (QLD) Coalition 1.05FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(ThorProhaska)81.00
Labor 8.50LibDem51.00
Dobell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition3.30
Green 51.00Independent(GregoryStephenson)151.00
Independent (Paul Baker) 151.00Labor1.30
Pauline Hanson $151.00
Dunkley (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00ArtsParty51.00
Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.22
Derryn Hinch 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(JosephToscano)51.00
Labor 4.00LibDem51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Durack (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 34.00Liberal1.08
National 7.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 3.00Green51.00
Independent (Andrew Thaler) 151.00Independent(DanielGrosmaire)151.00
Independent (Ray Buckley) 151.00Labor1.35
Veterans Party $151.00
Fadden (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Pauline Hanson 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Fairfax (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(KeithAlexanderCampbell)51.00
Independent (Robert Dickson) 51.00Labor16.00
Online Direct Democracy 51.00PaulineHanson51.00
Farrer (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Brian Mills) 151.00MatureAustralia151.00
Fenner (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewWoodman)101.00
Labor $1.00
Fisher (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Mike Jessop) 51.00Labor16.00
Online Direct Democracy 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Veterans Party $51.00
Flinders (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(ShaneWLewis)51.00
Labor 16.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Flynn (QLD) Coalition 1.20FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(DuncanScott)51.00
Independent (Jordan Ryan Puku) 51.00Independent(NathanJoelDavidFletcher)51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor4.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Forde (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.25
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (David Wilks) 51.00Labor3.75
Forrest (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ross Maitland Slater) 51.00Labor16.00
Liberal 1.01National12.00
Outdoor Recreation Party (David Fishlock) 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Fowler (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Smokers Rights $151.00
Franklin (TAS) Arts Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 16.00Green21.00
Labor $1.00
Fremantle (WA) Coalition 34.00Green10.00
Labor 1.03MatureAustralia51.00
Socialist Alliance $51.00
Gellibrand (VIC) Coalition 26.00Green16.00
Independent (David Tran) 51.00Labor1.00
Gilmore (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.27
Green 51.00Labor3.50
Gippsland (VIC) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Cherie Smith) 51.00Independent(ChristineSindt)51.00
Labor 34.00LibDem51.00
Renewable Energy Party 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Goldstein (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Gorton (VIC) Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Labor $1.00
Grayndler (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianCyclists101.00
Australian Sex Party 101.00ChristianDemocraticParty151.00
Coalition 31.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 8.00Labor1.04
Renewable Energy Party 101.00ScienceParty251.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Greenway (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition3.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Avtar Singh Billu) 151.00Labor1.35
Lib Dem 101.00ScienceParty151.00
Grey (SA) Coalition 1.44FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(PhillipGourlay)51.00
Labor 26.00NickXenophonTeam2.55
Griffith (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition4.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 34.00Independent(KarelBoele)51.00
Labor 1.15LibDem51.00
Groom (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Hasluck (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.27
Green 51.00Labor3.50
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Herbert (QLD) Coalition 1.10FamilyFirst51.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 26.00Labor6.00
Lib Dem 51.00PUP51.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Higgins (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.06
Derryn Hinch 51.00Green8.00
Labor 18.00LibDem51.00
Marriage Equality (Rebecca O 51.00NickXenophonTeam51.00
Hindmarsh (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.75FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor3.00
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Hinkler (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.08
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Bill Foster) 51.00Labor7.50
Pauline Hanson $21.00
Holt (VIC) Coalition 16.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Hotham (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 1.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Hughes (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Labor $16.00
Hume (NSW) Bullet Train for Australia 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Hunter (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(ArjayMartin)151.00
Independent (Cordelia Troy) 101.00Independent(JohnHarvey)151.00
Independent (John Warham) 151.00Labor1.00
Indi (VIC) Australian Country Party (Julian Fidge) 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Alan James Lappin) 51.00Independent(CathyMcGowan)1.15
Independent (Ray Dyer) 51.00Labor34.00
Lib Dem 51.00Liberal9.00
National 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Isaacs (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Jagajaga (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition8.50
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor $1.05
Kennedy (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)1.05
Labor $26.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition12.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Science Party $151.00
Kingston (SA) Coalition 12.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Kooyong (VIC) Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Angelina Zubac) 51.00Labor16.00
La Trobe (Vic) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 1.17DerrynHinch51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 4.50LibDem51.00
Rise Up Australia 51.00Shooters51.00
Lalor (VIC) Australia First 51.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Leichhardt (QLD) Coalition 1.08FamilyFirst34.00
Green 51.00Independent(DanielMcCarthy)16.00
Independent (Michael Newie) 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 8.00PaulineHanson51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Lilley (QLD) Coalition 12.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Lib Dem $51.00
Lindsay (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustraliaFirst151.00
Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.22DerrynHinch81.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Marcus Cornish) 51.00Labor4.00
Nick Xenophon Team $31.00
Lingiari (NT) Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition5.00
Green 51.00Independent(AlfredGould)151.00
Independent (Braedon Earley) 101.00Independent(MarkGuyula)151.00
Labor 1.15RiseUpAustralia151.00
Shooters $101.00
Longman (QLD) Arts Party 51.00AustralianLibertyAlliance51.00
Coalition 1.15DrugLawReform51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Greg Riddell) 51.00Independent(RobLaw)51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor5.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Lyne (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 26.00Independent(BradChristensen)151.00
Independent (Roger John Riach) 151.00Labor26.00
Lyons (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 3.05Green51.00
Labor 1.30RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Macarthur (NSW) Coalition 2.15Green51.00
Labor 1.65NickXenophonTeam16.00
Mackellar (NSW) Coalition 1.00Green26.00
Independent (Jim Ball) 16.00Independent(JulieHegarty)101.00
Independent (Liam Gavin 51.00Labor21.00
Macquarie (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.52DerrynHinch51.00
Green 26.00Labor2.40
Lib Dem 81.00Shooters101.00
Makin (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Mark Aldridge) 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Mallee (VIC) Citizens Electoral Council 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor21.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Maranoa (QLD) Coalition 1.00CountryMinded51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor21.00
Pauline Hanson 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Independent (Catherine Cumming) 51.00Labor1.00
Mayo (SA) Coalition 2.50FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor51.00
Lib Dem 51.00NickXenophonTeam1.50
McEwen (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianCountryParty(TraceyAndrew)51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ross Lee) 51.00Labor1.12
Liberal 5.50National51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
McMahon (NSW) Australia First 151.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(FadhelShamasha)151.00
Labor $1.00
McMillan (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
McPherson (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(RobJones)51.00
Labor $16.00
Melbourne (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00DrugLawReform51.00
Green 1.05Labor9.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition4.50
Drug Law Reform 51.00Green11.00
Independent (John B Myers) 51.00Independent(PeterHolland)51.00
Labor 1.17MarriageEquality(HenryVonDoussa)51.00
Menzies (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ramon Robinson) 51.00Independent(StephenMayne)16.00
Labor 26.00VoluntaryEuthanasiaParty(JayFranklin)51.00
Mitchell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moncrieff (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moore (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moreton (QLD) Coalition 7.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 1.07LibDem51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Murray (VIC) Australian Country Party (Robert Danieli) 51.00CitizensElectoralCouncil51.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewBock)51.00
Independent (Diane Teasdale) 51.00Independent(FernSummer)51.00
Independent (Nigel Hicks) 51.00Labor26.00
Liberal 1.50National2.50
Rise Up Australia $51.00
New England (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.30
CountryMinded 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Philip Cox) 101.00Independent(RobTaber)101.00
Independent (Tony Windsor) 3.30Labor34.00
Lib Dem 151.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Newcastle (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Democratic Labour Party 101.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 51.00Independent(RodHolding)151.00
Labor $1.00
North Sydney (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Ruff) 21.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00ScienceParty151.00
O'Connor (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 21.00Liberal1.10
National 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Oxley (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 1.05PaulineHanson51.00
Page (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 2.60Green51.00
Labor 1.45LibDem51.00
Parkes (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Parramatta (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition8.50
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Mahesh Raj) 151.00Labor1.05
Lib Dem 51.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Paterson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 5.00Green26.00
Labor 1.15PaulineHanson101.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Pearce (WA) Green 51.00Labor12.00
Liberal 1.01National16.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Perth (WA) Coalition 6.00Green26.00
Labor 1.10LibDem51.00
Online Direct Democracy $51.00
Petrie (QLD) Arts Party 51.00Coalition2.75
Family First 51.00Green41.00
Labor 1.40LibDem51.00
Port Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 26.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.10
Nick Xenophon Team $6.00
Rankin (QLD) Coalition 16.00ConsumerRights51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor1.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Reid (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.10
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $6.00
Richmond (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 5.00Green16.00
Labor 1.15PaulineHanson101.00
Riverina (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Richard Foley) 151.00Labor21.00
Robertson (NSW) Anti-Paedophile Party (Lawrie Higgins) 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.22Green51.00
Independent (Van Davy) 34.00Labor4.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Ryan (QLD) Coalition 1.00DemocraticLabourParty51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 16.00LibDem51.00
Scullin (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition26.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00Green16.00
Labor $1.00
Shortland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Solomon (NT) Australia First 151.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 3.50Green41.00
HEMP Party 151.00Independent(MarkGarner)101.00
Labor 1.27LibDem151.00
Rise Up Australia 151.00Shooters151.00
Stirling (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.10
Green 51.00Independent(KimMubarak)51.00
Labor 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Sturt (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.15
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Neil Aitchison) 51.00Labor11.00
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Swan (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.15
Green 51.00Labor5.00
Sydney (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianSexParty101.00
Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition34.00
Green 12.00Labor1.01
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Socialist Alliance 151.00SustainableAustralia151.00
Tangney (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(DennisJensen)16.00
Labor $34.00
Wakefield (SA) Christian Democratic Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (John Bolton) 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Wannon (VIC) Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Bernardine Atkinson) 51.00Independent(MichaelJohnMcCluskey)51.00
Labor $34.00
Warringah (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.02Green51.00
Independent (David Barrow) 151.00Independent(JamesMathison)11.00
Independent (Tony Backhouse) 151.00Labor21.00
Nick Xenophon Team 16.00ScienceParty151.00
Watson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Wentworth (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Allen David) 151.00Independent(MarcAussieStone)1001.00
Labor 16.00ScienceParty151.00
Werriwa (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition5.00
Green 51.00Labor1.15
Whitlam (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition34.00
Green 16.00Labor1.00
Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Wide Bay (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 51.00Green34.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor16.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Wills (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00DrugLawReform51.00
Green 5.00Independent(FrancescoTimpano)51.00
Labor 1.15RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Socialist Alliance 51.00SocialistEquality51.00
Wright (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00MatureAustralia51.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00

The predicted election outcomes using two different methods. First the sum of seat probabilities that have been adjusted for the longshot bias, which suggests: 79 Coalition, 64 Labor, 2 Green, 2 Independents, 1 Katter and 2 NXT). Then a tally of seat favourites, which suggests: 80 Coalition, 65 Labor, 2 Independents, 1 Green, 1 Katter, 1 NXT.

Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
2016-05-12 0.000000 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-13 0.000000 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-14 0.000000 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-15 0.000000 75.214855 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.442729 0.247897
2016-05-16 0.000000 75.482570 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.175013 0.247897
2016-05-17 0.000000 75.745899 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 68.911684 0.247897
2016-05-18 0.000000 75.731705 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.799499 0.247897
2016-05-19 0.000000 75.754524 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.776680 0.247897
2016-05-20 0.000000 75.575638 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.955566 0.247897
2016-05-21 0.000000 75.613618 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.955566 0.247897
2016-05-22 0.000000 75.656436 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.912748 0.247897
2016-05-23 0.000000 75.694486 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.874698 0.247897
2016-05-24 0.000000 75.842328 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.726856 0.247897
2016-05-25 0.000000 75.898752 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.670432 0.247897
2016-05-26 0.000000 75.898752 2.470212 2.098689 0.828666 68.455783 0.247897
2016-05-27 0.000000 76.103881 2.570234 2.135726 0.828666 68.187647 0.173846
2016-05-28 0.000000 76.161064 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.168570 0.173846
2016-05-29 0.000000 76.315393 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.014241 0.173846
2016-05-30 0.000000 76.315393 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.014241 0.173846
2016-05-31 0.000000 76.389087 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 67.940547 0.173846
2016-06-01 0.000000 76.456967 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 67.825419 0.221094
2016-06-02 0.000000 76.015262 2.473347 2.102324 1.000000 68.099913 0.309155
2016-06-03 0.000000 75.772743 2.287680 2.102343 1.000000 68.498784 0.338449
2016-06-04 0.000000 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.000000 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-05 0.000000 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.000000 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-06 0.000000 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.000000 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-07 0.000000 75.842092 2.281834 2.127250 1.000000 68.375776 0.373049
2016-06-08 0.000000 75.703407 2.281834 2.127250 1.000000 68.273084 0.614425
2016-06-09 0.000000 75.750756 2.277103 2.127250 1.000000 68.230467 0.614425
2016-06-10 0.000000 76.330986 2.277103 2.085175 1.000000 67.692311 0.614425
2016-06-11 0.000000 76.096734 2.277103 2.126152 1.000000 67.626530 0.873481
2016-06-12 0.000000 76.096734 2.277103 2.126152 1.000000 67.626530 0.873481
2016-06-13 0.000000 76.045316 1.603666 2.126152 1.000000 68.318245 0.906621
2016-06-14 0.000000 76.600312 1.603666 2.126152 1.000000 67.763249 0.906621
2016-06-15 0.000000 77.035556 1.451383 2.126152 1.000000 67.582979 0.803930
2016-06-16 0.000000 77.055971 1.451383 2.126152 1.000000 67.563239 0.803255
2016-06-17 0.000000 76.898093 1.445724 2.240585 1.000000 67.573984 0.841614
2016-06-18 0.000000 77.044370 1.445724 2.240585 1.000000 67.359658 0.909662
2016-06-19 0.000000 77.819110 1.445724 2.240585 1.000000 66.361514 1.133067
2016-06-20 0.000000 77.704014 1.445724 2.240585 1.000000 66.476610 1.133067
2016-06-21 0.000000 77.565649 1.494020 2.268331 1.000000 66.311300 1.360700
2016-06-22 0.000000 77.322504 1.757358 2.320336 0.882679 65.541414 2.175710
2016-06-23 0.000000 77.038748 1.599573 2.320336 0.882679 65.982955 2.175710
2016-06-24 0.000000 77.190811 1.599572 2.270740 0.882679 65.916801 2.139397
2016-06-25 0.002789 77.383298 1.560209 2.413818 0.882679 65.771926 1.985281
2016-06-26 0.002909 77.558116 1.544605 2.413818 1.000000 65.472795 2.007757
2016-06-27 0.002909 77.233410 1.544605 2.413818 1.000000 65.797500 2.007757
2016-06-28 0.002909 77.925265 1.544605 2.413818 1.000000 65.043441 2.069962
2016-06-29 0.000508 78.199774 1.604675 2.384684 1.000000 64.740397 2.069962
2016-06-30 0.000000 78.155973 1.604675 2.447030 1.000000 64.752531 2.039791
2016-07-01 0.002220 79.370845 1.586681 2.447030 1.000000 63.514800 2.078425

Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category

Coalition Labor Ind Coalition=Labor Katter Green NXT Coalition=NXT
2016-05-12 78 68 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-13 78 68 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-14 78 68 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-15 78 68 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-16 78 68 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-17 79 67 2 - 1 1 - -
2016-05-18 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-19 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-20 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-21 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-22 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-23 80 65 2 1.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-24 80 64 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-25 80 64 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-05-26 80 63 2 2.0 1 2 - -
2016-05-27 80 62 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-05-28 80 62 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-05-29 80 62 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-05-30 80 62 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-05-31 80 62 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-01 80 63 2 2.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-02 79 64 2 2.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-03 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-04 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-05 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-06 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-07 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-08 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-09 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-10 78 64 2 3.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-11 78 63 2 4.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-12 78 63 2 4.0 1 2 - -
2016-06-13 78 64 2 4.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-14 78 65 2 3.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-15 79 65 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-16 79 65 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-17 79 65 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-18 79 65 2 2.0 1 1 - -
2016-06-19 78 64 2 3.0 1 1 - 1.0
2016-06-20 80 64 2 1.0 1 1 - 1.0
2016-06-21 80 64 2 1.0 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-22 80 65 2 - 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-23 80 65 2 - 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-24 80 65 2 - 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-25 79 65 2 1.0 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-26 79 66 2 - 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-27 79 66 2 - 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-28 79 65 2 1.0 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-29 79 65 2 1.0 1 1 1.0 -
2016-06-30 79 65 2 1.0 1 1 1.0 -
2016-07-01 80 65 2 - 1 1 1.0 -

Applying an n=1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulation of the election outcome to the longshot bias adjusted seat probabilities, we get the result foreshadowed by the sum of probabilities above.







And finally, the probability of a win charts for each seat.