Aggregated polling update

On the face of it, the polls are close, albeit with the Coalition slightly ahead. In two-party preferred (TPP) terms:

• The latest Galaxy poll (28-29 June) has the Coalition on 51 to 49 for Labor.
• Ipsos (26-29 June) has it as a tie: with 50 per cent each to Labor and the Coalition
• Newspoll (24-26 June) has the Coalition on 51 to 49 for Labor
•  ReachTEL (23 June) also has the Coalition on 51 to Labor's 49

In aggregate, and assuming any house effects sum to zero, I get an aggregated poll result of 50.6 to the Coalition to 49.4 to Labor. If I anchor the TPP aggregation to the 2013 election result, I get 51.6 to the Coalition and 48.4 to Labor.

Notwithstanding the long campaign, the Coalition has improved its position in the final weeks. If the Coalition wins the election, this will challenge the conventional wisdom that governments do poorly in long campaigns (based on the experience of the 1984 election campaign).

Moving from a TPP estimate to the number of seats each party will win is extraordinary complicated this election. The biggest confounding factor is the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT). Will they win a swag of seats, a couple of seats or none? And will they change the way preferences flow? The other confounding factors are the re-emergence of the independents Windsor and Oakeshott in rural New South Wales and the good showing for the Greens in the seat of Batman.

To address these confounding factors I will model 1,000,000 election outcomes using a mix of seat swings in 138 seats and longshot bias adjusted seat odds in 12 seats (namely, Melbourne (VIC), Denison (TAS), Indi (VIC), Kennedy (QLD), Fairfax (QLD), Cowper (NSW), New England (NSW), Barker (SA), Boothby (SA), Grey (SA), Mayo (SA), and Batman (VIC)). From this Monte Carlo Simulation, I will use the most common results to forecast an election outcome.

I start with the anchored poll result above (51.6 per cent for the Coalition; which in round terms is a 1.9 percentage point swing to Labor on the 2013 election). I make adjustments for different state swings based on Newspoll data as follows (where a negative number is a greater swing to Labor and a positive number is a lesser swing to Labor).

	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS	ACT	NT
0	-0.1	1.7	-2.5	-0.8	2.5	0	0	0

The resulting analysis identifies these seats as the most likely to change hands.

	TPP 2013	TCP 2013	2013 Outcome	2016 Favourite
Seat
Bonner (QLD)	LNP 3.7%	-	Coalition	Labor
Brisbane (QLD)	LNP 4.3%	-	Coalition	Labor
Capricornia (QLD)	LNP 0.8%	-	Coalition	Labor
Fairfax (QLD)	-	PUP 0.03% v LNP	Palmer United	Coalition
Forde (QLD)	LNP 4.4%	-	Coalition	Labor
Lyons (TAS)	LIB 1.2%	-	Coalition	Labor
Mayo (SA)	LIB 12.5%	-	Coalition	NXT
Petrie (QLD)	LNP 0.5%	-	Coalition	Labor
Solomon (NT)	CLP 1.4%	-	Coalition	Labor

But this analysis ignores close seats like Batman, where the incumbent (Labor) is only just ahead of the Greens according to betting markets, and the result could easily go either way. We can address this problem with a Monte Carlo simulation of the probabilities for each seat. The results of the simulation are:

My election prediction: the Monte Carlo simulation of the polls suggests the most likely outcome is 79 Coalition, 65 Labor and 6 others (comprising independents, Greens, Katter and NXT representatives).

Turning to Primary votes: the campaign has been kind to the Coalition and unkind to the Greens. Labor declined for much of the campaign, but has managed a very late and small recovery. The independent vote looks like being particularly high, and will make this an that could see some surprise upsets.

Finally, a comparison of all my models.

Betting Market Update

Only one more sleep! This morning's odds were scrapped at 5.45am. With a win probability of 87.3% on average, the betting market strongly favours the Coalition to provide the Prime Minister in the next Parliament.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-07-01	Betfair	1.13	7.46	86.85
2016-07-01	CrownBet	1.09	7.20	86.85
2016-07-01	Ladbrokes	1.08	7.50	87.41
2016-07-01	Luxbet	1.08	8.00	88.11
2016-07-01	Sportsbet	1.08	8.00	88.11
2016-07-01	William Hill	1.10	7.00	86.42

	Fr 24-Jun	Sa 25-Jun	Su 26-Jun	Mo 27-Jun	Tu 28-Jun	We 29-Jun	Th 30-Jun	Fr 1-Jul
Betfair	84.99	84.88	84.61	85.91	85.79	87.86	88.88	86.85
CrownBet	82.71	82.71	82.71	82.71	85.30	85.30	85.30	86.85
Ladbrokes	84.27	84.39	84.39	82.96	85.53	85.53	87.41	87.41
Luxbet	83.09	83.09	83.09	83.09	83.70	85.99	85.99	88.11
Sportsbet	82.71	82.71	82.71	82.71	86.42	86.42	88.11	88.11
William Hill	84.27	84.27	84.27	82.83	84.15	86.42	86.42	86.42
Average	83.67	83.67	83.63	83.37	85.15	86.25	87.02	87.29

Turning to the prediction market for individual seats ... first the odds

	Missing Odds
2016-05-19	O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20	O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03	Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04	Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05	Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06	Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07	Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09	Lingiari (NT), Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10	Brisbane (QLD), Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11	Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-12	Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-13	Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-14	Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-16	Grayndler (NSW)
2016-06-17	Mackellar (NSW)
2016-06-20	Cook (NSW)
2016-06-21	Cook (NSW)
2016-06-25	Ballarat (VIC), Bendigo (VIC), Calwell (VIC), Canning (WA), Durack (WA), Forrest (WA), Pearce (WA)
2016-06-26	Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)
2016-06-27	Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)

Latest odds

	2016-07-01
Adelaide (SA)	Animal Justice Party $101.00 Family First $101.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.22 Lib Dem $101.00 Liberal $4.00 Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Aston (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $101.00 Coalition $1.01 Family First $101.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Daniel Huppert) $51.00 Labor $12.00 Lib Dem $101.00
Ballarat (VIC)	Australian Christians $151.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Bren Eckel) $151.00 Labor $1.01 Liberal $12.00 National $26.00 Rise Up Australia $151.00
Banks (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.15 Family First $101.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Bob Spanswick) $151.00 Labor $5.00
Barker (SA)	Coalition $1.35 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $26.00 Nick Xenophon Team $3.00
Barton (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $7.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Rasmus Torkel) $151.00 Labor $1.07 Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Bass (TAS)	Australian Recreational Fishers Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $1.22 Green $51.00 Labor $4.00 Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Batman (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Cyclists $51.00 Australian Progressives (Russell Hayward) $51.00 Australian Sex Party $51.00 Coalition $34.00 Green $1.90 Independent (Franco Guardiani) $51.00 Independent (Philip Sutton) $51.00 Labor $1.84 Marriage Equality (Elizabeth Syber) $51.00 Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bendigo (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Any Other $34.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Anita Erika Donlon) $101.00 Labor $1.10 Liberal $6.00 National $16.00 Rise Up Australia $151.00
Bennelong (NSW)	Arts Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Martin Mulcare) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Pirate Party $151.00
Berowra (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Mick Gallagher) $101.00 Labor $16.00 Science Party $151.00
Blair (QLD)	Coalition $6.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Jonathan Emms) $151.00 Independent (Patricia Petersen) $151.00 Independent (Sandy Turner) $151.00 Labor $1.10 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Blaxland (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Socialist Equality $151.00
Bonner (QLD)	Coalition $1.12 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Jarrod Wirth) $151.00 Labor $5.50 Lib Dem $51.00
Boothby (SA)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.22 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Jamie Armfield) $51.00 Independent (Robert de Jonge) $51.00 Labor $26.00 Nick Xenophon Team $3.50
Bowman (QLD)	Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00 Coalition $1.05 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Labor $8.50
Braddon (TAS)	Australian Recreational Fishers Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $1.35 Green $51.00 Labor $3.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bradfield (NSW)	Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Christine Berman) $151.00 Labor $16.00
Brand (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $8.50 Green $51.00 Labor $1.05 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Brisbane (QLD)	Coalition $1.40 Family First $151.00 Green $34.00 Labor $2.75 Lib Dem $51.00 Veterans Party $151.00
Bruce (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $5.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.15 Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Burt (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $3.50 Green $51.00 Labor $1.27 Shooters $51.00
Calare (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $101.00 Independent (Anthony Craig) $151.00 Labor $21.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Nick Xenophon Team $34.00
Calwell (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Michael Amon Lakkis) $51.00 Labor $1.01
Canberra (ACT)	Bullet Train for Australia $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $21.00 Labor $1.00
Canning (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00 Liberal $1.01 National $26.00
Capricornia (QLD)	Coalition $2.60 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Ken Murray) $151.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $34.00 Labor $1.45
Casey (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.05 Green $51.00 Independent (Peter Charleton) $51.00 Labor $8.50 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Chifley (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Ammar Khan) $151.00 Labor $1.00
Chisholm (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $2.75 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.40 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Cook (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $16.00 Independent (John Brett) $151.00 Labor $34.00
Corangamite (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.03 Derryn Hinch $51.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $46.00 Independent (Michael Lawrence) $51.00 Labor $10.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Corio (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Bullet Train For Australia (Jeff Moran) $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.02 Rise Up Australia $51.00 Socialist Alliance $51.00
Cowan (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.75 Green $51.00 Labor $2.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Mature Australia $51.00 Shooters $51.00
Cowper (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Citizens Electoral Council $151.00 Coalition $1.50 Green $51.00 Independent (John Arkan) $151.00 Independent (Rob Oakeshott) $2.50 Labor $34.00
Cunningham (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $26.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00 Science Party $151.00
Curtin (WA)	Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Sandra Boulter) $51.00 Labor $16.00
Dawson (QLD)	Coalition $1.10 Family First $151.00 Glenn Lazarus Team $101.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Stephen Large) $151.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $41.00 Labor $6.00
Deakin (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.15 Family First $51.00 Green $34.00 Labor $5.00
Denison (TAS)	Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $21.00 Democratic Labour Party $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Andrew Wilkie) $1.00 Labor $16.00
Dickson (QLD)	Coalition $1.05 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Thor Prohaska) $81.00 Labor $8.50 Lib Dem $51.00
Dobell (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $3.30 Green $51.00 Independent (Gregory Stephenson) $151.00 Independent (Paul Baker) $151.00 Labor $1.30 Pauline Hanson $151.00
Dunkley (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Arts Party $51.00 Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.22 Derryn Hinch $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Joseph Toscano) $51.00 Labor $4.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Durack (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $34.00 Liberal $1.08 National $7.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Eden Monaro (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $3.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Andrew Thaler) $151.00 Independent (Daniel Grosmaire) $151.00 Independent (Ray Buckley) $151.00 Labor $1.35 Veterans Party $151.00
Fadden (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00 Veterans Party $151.00
Fairfax (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Keith Alexander Campbell) $51.00 Independent (Robert Dickson) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Online Direct Democracy $51.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Farrer (NSW)	Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Brian Mills) $151.00 Mature Australia $151.00
Fenner (ACT)	Bullet Train for Australia $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Andrew Woodman) $101.00 Labor $1.00
Fisher (QLD)	Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Mike Jessop) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Online Direct Democracy $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00 Veterans Party $51.00
Flinders (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Shane W Lewis) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Flynn (QLD)	Coalition $1.20 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Duncan Scott) $51.00 Independent (Jordan Ryan Puku) $51.00 Independent (Nathan Joel David Fletcher) $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $4.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Forde (QLD)	Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $1.25 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (David Wilks) $51.00 Labor $3.75
Forrest (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Ross Maitland Slater) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Liberal $1.01 National $12.00 Outdoor Recreation Party (David Fishlock) $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Fowler (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $21.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Smokers Rights $151.00
Franklin (TAS)	Arts Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $21.00 Labor $1.00
Fremantle (WA)	Coalition $34.00 Green $10.00 Labor $1.03 Mature Australia $51.00 Socialist Alliance $51.00
Gellibrand (VIC)	Coalition $26.00 Green $16.00 Independent (David Tran) $51.00 Labor $1.00
Gilmore (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.27 Green $51.00 Labor $3.50
Gippsland (VIC)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Cherie Smith) $51.00 Independent (Christine Sindt) $51.00 Labor $34.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Renewable Energy Party $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Goldstein (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Gorton (VIC)	Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00
Grayndler (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Australian Cyclists $101.00 Australian Sex Party $101.00 Christian Democratic Party $151.00 Coalition $31.00 Drug Law Reform $151.00 Green $8.00 Labor $1.04 Renewable Energy Party $101.00 Science Party $251.00 Socialist Equality $151.00
Greenway (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $151.00 Coalition $3.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Avtar Singh Billu) $151.00 Labor $1.35 Lib Dem $101.00 Science Party $151.00
Grey (SA)	Coalition $1.44 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Phillip Gourlay) $51.00 Labor $26.00 Nick Xenophon Team $2.55
Griffith (QLD)	Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $4.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $34.00 Independent (Karel Boele) $51.00 Labor $1.15 Lib Dem $51.00
Groom (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $26.00 Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Hasluck (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.27 Green $51.00 Labor $3.50 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Herbert (QLD)	Coalition $1.10 Family First $51.00 Glenn Lazarus Team $51.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $26.00 Labor $6.00 Lib Dem $51.00 PUP $51.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Higgins (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.06 Derryn Hinch $51.00 Green $8.00 Labor $18.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Marriage Equality (Rebecca O $51.00 Nick Xenophon Team $51.00
Hindmarsh (SA)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $1.75 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $3.00 Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Hinkler (QLD)	Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $1.08 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Bill Foster) $51.00 Labor $7.50 Pauline Hanson $21.00
Holt (VIC)	Coalition $16.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Hotham (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Hughes (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Hume (NSW)	Bullet Train for Australia $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Citizens Electoral Council $151.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Hunter (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Arjay Martin) $151.00 Independent (Cordelia Troy) $101.00 Independent (John Harvey) $151.00 Independent (John Warham) $151.00 Labor $1.00
Indi (VIC)	Australian Country Party (Julian Fidge) $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Alan James Lappin) $51.00 Independent (Cathy McGowan) $1.15 Independent (Ray Dyer) $51.00 Labor $34.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Liberal $9.00 National $6.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Isaacs (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00
Jagajaga (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $8.50 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.05
Kennedy (QLD)	Coalition $8.50 Family First $101.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $1.05 Labor $26.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $12.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.01 Science Party $151.00
Kingston (SA)	Coalition $12.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.15 Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Kooyong (VIC)	Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Angelina Zubac) $51.00 Labor $16.00
La Trobe (Vic)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Sex Party $51.00 Coalition $1.17 Derryn Hinch $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $4.50 Lib Dem $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00 Shooters $51.00
Lalor (VIC)	Australia First $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Leichhardt (QLD)	Coalition $1.08 Family First $34.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Daniel McCarthy) $16.00 Independent (Michael Newie) $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $8.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Lilley (QLD)	Coalition $12.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.01 Lib Dem $51.00
Lindsay (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Australia First $151.00 Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.22 Derryn Hinch $81.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Marcus Cornish) $51.00 Labor $4.00 Nick Xenophon Team $31.00
Lingiari (NT)	Citizens Electoral Council $151.00 Coalition $5.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Alfred Gould) $151.00 Independent (Braedon Earley) $101.00 Independent (Mark Guyula) $151.00 Labor $1.15 Rise Up Australia $151.00 Shooters $101.00
Longman (QLD)	Arts Party $51.00 Australian Liberty Alliance $51.00 Coalition $1.15 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Greg Riddell) $51.00 Independent (Rob Law) $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $5.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Lyne (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $26.00 Independent (Brad Christensen) $151.00 Independent (Roger John Riach) $151.00 Labor $26.00
Lyons (TAS)	Australian Recreational Fishers Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $3.05 Green $51.00 Labor $1.30 Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Macarthur (NSW)	Coalition $2.15 Green $51.00 Labor $1.65 Nick Xenophon Team $16.00
Mackellar (NSW)	Coalition $1.00 Green $26.00 Independent (Jim Ball) $16.00 Independent (Julie Hegarty) $101.00 Independent (Liam Gavin $51.00 Labor $21.00
Macquarie (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.52 Derryn Hinch $51.00 Green $26.00 Labor $2.40 Lib Dem $81.00 Shooters $101.00
Makin (SA)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Mark Aldridge) $51.00 Labor $1.15 Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Mallee (VIC)	Citizens Electoral Council $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $21.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Maranoa (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 CountryMinded $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $21.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Maribyrnong (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Catherine Cumming) $51.00 Labor $1.00
Mayo (SA)	Coalition $2.50 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $51.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Nick Xenophon Team $1.50
McEwen (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Country Party (Tracey Andrew) $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Ross Lee) $51.00 Labor $1.12 Liberal $5.50 National $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
McMahon (NSW)	Australia First $151.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Fadhel Shamasha) $151.00 Labor $1.00
McMillan (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
McPherson (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Rob Jones) $51.00 Labor $16.00
Melbourne (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Sex Party $51.00 Coalition $34.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Green $1.05 Labor $9.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $4.50 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Green $11.00 Independent (John B Myers) $51.00 Independent (Peter Holland) $51.00 Labor $1.17 Marriage Equality (Henry Von Doussa) $51.00
Menzies (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Ramon Robinson) $51.00 Independent (Stephen Mayne) $16.00 Labor $26.00 Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Jay Franklin) $51.00
Mitchell (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Moncrieff (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Moore (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00
Moreton (QLD)	Coalition $7.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $1.07 Lib Dem $51.00 Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Murray (VIC)	Australian Country Party (Robert Danieli) $51.00 Citizens Electoral Council $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Andrew Bock) $51.00 Independent (Diane Teasdale) $51.00 Independent (Fern Summer) $51.00 Independent (Nigel Hicks) $51.00 Labor $26.00 Liberal $1.50 National $2.50 Rise Up Australia $51.00
New England (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.30 CountryMinded $101.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Philip Cox) $101.00 Independent (Rob Taber) $101.00 Independent (Tony Windsor) $3.30 Labor $34.00 Lib Dem $151.00 Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Newcastle (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Democratic Labour Party $101.00 Drug Law Reform $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Rod Holding) $151.00 Labor $1.00
North Sydney (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Stephen Ruff) $21.00 Labor $16.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Science Party $151.00
O'Connor (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $21.00 Liberal $1.10 National $6.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Oxley (QLD)	Coalition $8.50 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $1.05 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Page (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $2.60 Green $51.00 Labor $1.45 Lib Dem $51.00
Parkes (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Labor $26.00 Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Parramatta (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $8.50 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Mahesh Raj) $151.00 Labor $1.05 Lib Dem $51.00 Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Paterson (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Citizens Electoral Council $151.00 Coalition $5.00 Green $26.00 Labor $1.15 Pauline Hanson $101.00 Rise Up Australia $151.00
Pearce (WA)	Green $51.00 Labor $12.00 Liberal $1.01 National $16.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Perth (WA)	Coalition $6.00 Green $26.00 Labor $1.10 Lib Dem $51.00 Online Direct Democracy $51.00
Petrie (QLD)	Arts Party $51.00 Coalition $2.75 Family First $51.00 Green $41.00 Labor $1.40 Lib Dem $51.00
Port Adelaide (SA)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $26.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.10 Nick Xenophon Team $6.00
Rankin (QLD)	Coalition $16.00 Consumer Rights $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $1.00 Lib Dem $51.00
Reid (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.10 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Labor $6.00
Richmond (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $5.00 Green $16.00 Labor $1.15 Pauline Hanson $101.00
Riverina (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Family First $151.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Richard Foley) $151.00 Labor $21.00
Robertson (NSW)	Anti-Paedophile Party (Lawrie Higgins) $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.22 Green $51.00 Independent (Van Davy) $34.00 Labor $4.00 Lib Dem $51.00
Ryan (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Democratic Labour Party $51.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00 Lib Dem $51.00
Scullin (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $26.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Green $16.00 Labor $1.00
Shortland (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $16.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00
Solomon (NT)	Australia First $151.00 Citizens Electoral Council $151.00 Coalition $3.50 Green $41.00 HEMP Party $151.00 Independent (Mark Garner) $101.00 Labor $1.27 Lib Dem $151.00 Rise Up Australia $151.00 Shooters $151.00
Stirling (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.10 Green $51.00 Independent (Kim Mubarak) $51.00 Labor $6.00 Rise Up Australia $51.00
Sturt (SA)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Coalition $1.15 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Neil Aitchison) $51.00 Labor $11.00 Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Swan (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.15 Green $51.00 Labor $5.00
Sydney (NSW)	Animal Justice Party $151.00 Australian Sex Party $101.00 Christian Democratic Party $151.00 Coalition $34.00 Green $12.00 Labor $1.01 Online Direct Democracy $151.00 Science Party $151.00 Socialist Alliance $151.00 Sustainable Australia $151.00
Tangney (WA)	Australian Christians $51.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Dennis Jensen) $16.00 Labor $34.00
Wakefield (SA)	Christian Democratic Party $51.00 Coalition $16.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Independent (John Bolton) $51.00 Labor $1.15 Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Wannon (VIC)	Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Bernardine Atkinson) $51.00 Independent (Michael John McCluskey) $51.00 Labor $34.00
Warringah (NSW)	Arts Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.02 Green $51.00 Independent (David Barrow) $151.00 Independent (James Mathison) $11.00 Independent (Tony Backhouse) $151.00 Labor $21.00 Nick Xenophon Team $16.00 Science Party $151.00
Watson (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $21.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.00 Online Direct Democracy $151.00 Science Party $151.00
Wentworth (NSW)	Arts Party $151.00 Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $1.00 Green $51.00 Independent (Allen David) $151.00 Independent (Marc Aussie-Stone) $1001.00 Labor $16.00 Science Party $151.00
Werriwa (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $5.00 Green $51.00 Labor $1.15
Whitlam (NSW)	Christian Democratic Party $101.00 Coalition $34.00 Green $16.00 Labor $1.00 Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Wide Bay (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Glenn Lazarus Team $51.00 Green $34.00 KAP (Bob Katter) $51.00 Labor $16.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00
Wills (VIC)	Animal Justice Party $51.00 Australian Sex Party $51.00 Coalition $34.00 Drug Law Reform $51.00 Green $5.00 Independent (Francesco Timpano) $51.00 Labor $1.15 Renewable Energy Party $51.00 Socialist Alliance $51.00 Socialist Equality $51.00
Wright (QLD)	Coalition $1.00 Family First $51.00 Green $51.00 Labor $16.00 Lib Dem $51.00 Mature Australia $51.00 Pauline Hanson $51.00

The predicted election outcomes using two different methods. First the sum of seat probabilities that have been adjusted for the longshot bias, which suggests: 79 Coalition, 64 Labor, 2 Green, 2 Independents, 1 Katter and 2 NXT). Then a tally of seat favourites, which suggests: 80 Coalition, 65 Labor, 2 Independents, 1 Green, 1 Katter, 1 NXT.

	Any Other	Coalition	Green	Ind	Katter	Labor	NXT
2016-05-12	0.000000	75.285787	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	69.371796	0.247897
2016-05-13	0.000000	75.285787	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	69.371796	0.247897
2016-05-14	0.000000	75.285787	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	69.371796	0.247897
2016-05-15	0.000000	75.214855	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	69.442729	0.247897
2016-05-16	0.000000	75.482570	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	69.175013	0.247897
2016-05-17	0.000000	75.745899	2.255564	2.010289	0.828666	68.911684	0.247897
2016-05-18	0.000000	75.731705	2.255564	2.136669	0.828666	68.799499	0.247897
2016-05-19	0.000000	75.754524	2.255564	2.136669	0.828666	68.776680	0.247897
2016-05-20	0.000000	75.575638	2.255564	2.136669	0.828666	68.955566	0.247897
2016-05-21	0.000000	75.613618	2.255564	2.098689	0.828666	68.955566	0.247897
2016-05-22	0.000000	75.656436	2.255564	2.098689	0.828666	68.912748	0.247897
2016-05-23	0.000000	75.694486	2.255564	2.098689	0.828666	68.874698	0.247897
2016-05-24	0.000000	75.842328	2.255564	2.098689	0.828666	68.726856	0.247897
2016-05-25	0.000000	75.898752	2.255564	2.098689	0.828666	68.670432	0.247897
2016-05-26	0.000000	75.898752	2.470212	2.098689	0.828666	68.455783	0.247897
2016-05-27	0.000000	76.103881	2.570234	2.135726	0.828666	68.187647	0.173846
2016-05-28	0.000000	76.161064	2.565530	2.102324	0.828666	68.168570	0.173846
2016-05-29	0.000000	76.315393	2.565530	2.102324	0.828666	68.014241	0.173846
2016-05-30	0.000000	76.315393	2.565530	2.102324	0.828666	68.014241	0.173846
2016-05-31	0.000000	76.389087	2.565530	2.102324	0.828666	67.940547	0.173846
2016-06-01	0.000000	76.456967	2.565530	2.102324	0.828666	67.825419	0.221094
2016-06-02	0.000000	76.015262	2.473347	2.102324	1.000000	68.099913	0.309155
2016-06-03	0.000000	75.772743	2.287680	2.102343	1.000000	68.498784	0.338449
2016-06-04	0.000000	75.834064	2.388496	2.135278	1.000000	68.269113	0.373049
2016-06-05	0.000000	75.834064	2.388496	2.135278	1.000000	68.269113	0.373049
2016-06-06	0.000000	75.834064	2.388496	2.135278	1.000000	68.269113	0.373049
2016-06-07	0.000000	75.842092	2.281834	2.127250	1.000000	68.375776	0.373049
2016-06-08	0.000000	75.703407	2.281834	2.127250	1.000000	68.273084	0.614425
2016-06-09	0.000000	75.750756	2.277103	2.127250	1.000000	68.230467	0.614425
2016-06-10	0.000000	76.330986	2.277103	2.085175	1.000000	67.692311	0.614425
2016-06-11	0.000000	76.096734	2.277103	2.126152	1.000000	67.626530	0.873481
2016-06-12	0.000000	76.096734	2.277103	2.126152	1.000000	67.626530	0.873481
2016-06-13	0.000000	76.045316	1.603666	2.126152	1.000000	68.318245	0.906621
2016-06-14	0.000000	76.600312	1.603666	2.126152	1.000000	67.763249	0.906621
2016-06-15	0.000000	77.035556	1.451383	2.126152	1.000000	67.582979	0.803930
2016-06-16	0.000000	77.055971	1.451383	2.126152	1.000000	67.563239	0.803255
2016-06-17	0.000000	76.898093	1.445724	2.240585	1.000000	67.573984	0.841614
2016-06-18	0.000000	77.044370	1.445724	2.240585	1.000000	67.359658	0.909662
2016-06-19	0.000000	77.819110	1.445724	2.240585	1.000000	66.361514	1.133067
2016-06-20	0.000000	77.704014	1.445724	2.240585	1.000000	66.476610	1.133067
2016-06-21	0.000000	77.565649	1.494020	2.268331	1.000000	66.311300	1.360700
2016-06-22	0.000000	77.322504	1.757358	2.320336	0.882679	65.541414	2.175710
2016-06-23	0.000000	77.038748	1.599573	2.320336	0.882679	65.982955	2.175710
2016-06-24	0.000000	77.190811	1.599572	2.270740	0.882679	65.916801	2.139397
2016-06-25	0.002789	77.383298	1.560209	2.413818	0.882679	65.771926	1.985281
2016-06-26	0.002909	77.558116	1.544605	2.413818	1.000000	65.472795	2.007757
2016-06-27	0.002909	77.233410	1.544605	2.413818	1.000000	65.797500	2.007757
2016-06-28	0.002909	77.925265	1.544605	2.413818	1.000000	65.043441	2.069962
2016-06-29	0.000508	78.199774	1.604675	2.384684	1.000000	64.740397	2.069962
2016-06-30	0.000000	78.155973	1.604675	2.447030	1.000000	64.752531	2.039791
2016-07-01	0.002220	79.370845	1.586681	2.447030	1.000000	63.514800	2.078425

Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category

	Coalition	Labor	Ind	Coalition=Labor	Katter	Green	NXT	Coalition=NXT
2016-05-12	78	68	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-13	78	68	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-14	78	68	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-15	78	68	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-16	78	68	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-17	79	67	2	-	1	1	-	-
2016-05-18	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-19	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-20	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-21	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-22	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-23	80	65	2	1.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-24	80	64	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-25	80	64	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-05-26	80	63	2	2.0	1	2	-	-
2016-05-27	80	62	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-05-28	80	62	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-05-29	80	62	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-05-30	80	62	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-05-31	80	62	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-01	80	63	2	2.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-02	79	64	2	2.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-03	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-04	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-05	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-06	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-07	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-08	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-09	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-10	78	64	2	3.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-11	78	63	2	4.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-12	78	63	2	4.0	1	2	-	-
2016-06-13	78	64	2	4.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-14	78	65	2	3.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-15	79	65	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-16	79	65	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-17	79	65	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-18	79	65	2	2.0	1	1	-	-
2016-06-19	78	64	2	3.0	1	1	-	1.0
2016-06-20	80	64	2	1.0	1	1	-	1.0
2016-06-21	80	64	2	1.0	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-22	80	65	2	-	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-23	80	65	2	-	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-24	80	65	2	-	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-25	79	65	2	1.0	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-26	79	66	2	-	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-27	79	66	2	-	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-28	79	65	2	1.0	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-29	79	65	2	1.0	1	1	1.0	-
2016-06-30	79	65	2	1.0	1	1	1.0	-
2016-07-01	80	65	2	-	1	1	1.0	-

Applying an n=1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulation of the election outcome to the longshot bias adjusted seat probabilities, we get the result foreshadowed by the sum of probabilities above.

And finally, the probability of a win charts for each seat.