Poll aggregation update

There were two new polls published last week, from Newspoll and Essential, both of which estimated the Coalition has 48 and Labor has 52 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. The aggregation of all polls has the Coalition on 47.9 and Labor on 52.1.

Cross checking this result against some simple moving averages, constrained such that house effects sum to zero, yields the following. Most of these moving averages are still factoring in the up-swing since November last year. I have mentioned before that these moving averages are less reliable around the endpoints than the Bayesian model.

My suspicion is that the Coalition's up-swing since late last year has run its course and we have seen fairly stable numbers for a month and a half or so now at around 48 per cent TPP for the Coalition. 

Turning to the primary vote estimates we have ...

In separate analysis, we can look at the Pauline Hanson One Nation Party results, which are included in the Other Parties primary vote chart immediately above ...

The TPP estimate from the logit primary vote model is less favourable to the Coalition than the published polls, using the preference flows from the most recent elections.