Update: betting market and opinion polls 25 November

In the days following the Trump win in the United States, the betting market for the Prime Minister's party after the next Australian Federal election was a little volatile. It appears to have settled with the Coalition as slight favourite (55% probability). This reverses the position of the two major parties immediately prior to the US election. 

Apologies for the gaps in the previous charts. For various reasons I was not able to capture the odds data every day. The continuous lines represent consecutive days on which I was able to collect odds.

The two-party preferred voting intention polls now have the Coalition ahead (on average). However, given the likely number of independents and minor parties in Parliament after the next election, it is a little difficult to be confident about the major party to form government. 

The estimated house-effects that arise from Gaussian Random Walk (GRW) Bayesian Aggregation above are as follows. Note: these two charts are reporting on the same underlying data. 

Turning to the primary voting intention, we can see some clear trends. The Coalition has improved its position while Labor has declined since the last election.

The ALP is below where it was at the last election. Labor would likely lose seats to the Coalition, the Greens and/or left-leaning independents, if the election reflected these poll results. 

The Coalition is ahead of its previous election performance, and should gain both Labor and perhaps independent seats at the next election. 

The Greens should either maintain their position or gain seats at the next election.

The independents will either maintain their seat count or lose seats at the next election (based on these poll results).

The attitudinal polling shows a remarkable shift in sentiment for a first-term government.