End of 2024 Polling and Betting Market Update

As a Bayesian, my prior assumption for first term governments is that they have a reasonably high probability of being re-elected come their first election as a Government. Yes there are exceptions (particularly for state governments), but Federally they have been rare. The only one term Federal government was the Scullin Labor Government that lost the 1931 election, albeit in the midst of the Great Depression. Since the 1920s, there have been more than 20 one term state governments. Recent examples include Napthine, 2014, Victoria; Campbell, 2015, Queensland; Giles, 2016, Northern Territory; and Marshall 2022 South Australia). However, even with the states, one term governments are not the norm. 

When the Albanese government was elected in 2022, I assumed Labor would most likely go on to win a second term in 2025. While my intuition remains that Labor should win a second term, my confidence is much reduced. Particularly as the betting market and the final polls of 2024 give the Coalition a slight edge. For the avid poll watcher, it means 2025 will be much more interesting than I had originally anticipated. There is good chance of a very close election and a Parliament where neither of the major parties has an absolute majority. Furthermore, there is a moderate chance of a change of government following the election. 

So let's look at the betting market. According to the collective wisdom of punters, the Coalition has a 55 per cent probability of forming government after the 2025 Federal Election.

Collectively, the pollsters have the Coalition a nose ahead of Labor (50.8 to 49.2 percent) in terms of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote, if an election was held now. 

Notably, Labor's primary vote is in the doldrums. The Greens vote (which substantially flows to Labor in the preferences) is also down.

Finally, a quick look at the attitudinal polling.

And with that, dear reader, may you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I am looking forward to seeing more of you in 2025. 

Polls and betting market update

The odds at Sportsbet have settled down following the reassessment that occurred immediately after the Trump election in the United States. At the moment, the betting market sees a 45 per cent probability of a Labor Government and a 55 per cent probability of a Coalition government. Note: the gaps in the next few charts represent the days where I did not collect odds data.

In aggregate, the opinion polls suggest the Coalition would secure a larger two-party preferred vote share compared with Labor (50.6 to 49.4 per cent). However, given the large number of independents and Greens likely to be elected to the House, it is difficult to predict which party would form (probably minority) government if the current two-party preferred (2pp) polls were replicated at the next election. 

The primary vote aggregations suggest that the Coalition and Others are strengthening over the past month while Labor and the Greens are down. The Greens appear to have lost around a percentage point over the past six months or so. 

And finally, a quick look at the attitudinal polling.