The odds at Sportsbet have settled down following the reassessment that occurred immediately after the Trump election in the United States. At the moment, the betting market sees a 45 per cent probability of a Labor Government and a 55 per cent probability of a Coalition government. Note: the gaps in the next few charts represent the days where I did not collect odds data.
In aggregate, the opinion polls suggest the Coalition would secure a larger two-party preferred vote share compared with Labor (50.6 to 49.4 per cent). However, given the large number of independents and Greens likely to be elected to the House, it is difficult to predict which party would form (probably minority) government if the current two-party preferred (2pp) polls were replicated at the next election.
The primary vote aggregations suggest that the Coalition and Others are strengthening over the past month while Labor and the Greens are down. The Greens appear to have lost around a percentage point over the past six months or so.
And finally, a quick look at the attitudinal polling.
