January is normally a quite month for polling in Australia, and 2025 is no exception. Nonetheless there have been a couple of polls since Christmas 2024. These polls suggest little movement since Christmas in two-party preferred terms. You will note that I now indicate on the first house-effects chart below, those polling houses which I have constrained so that their house effects sum to zero. I exclude pollsters with fewer than 5 polls, and the prior methodologies from pollsters which have changed methodologies.
In terms of the Primary Vote, Labor has picked up a tick in the most recent polls.
Conversely, the Greens have declined a touch.
The Coalition has improved a touch.
And the Other parties have declined a touch.
The betting marker has not moved in the past month.
Update: The polling charts were updated to correct some glitches in the earlier calculations. The code I use to produce these charts is publicly available on my GitHub page. The data for these charts is sourced from the Wikipedia page on Opinion Polling for the 2025 Australian Federal Election.
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