Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Today's Morgan

Today's Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor on 52.5 per cent (up 5) and the Coalition on 47.5 per cent (down 5). When I drop these figures into my six-month, fixed-House-effects Bayesian model the end-point estimate for the population TPP voting intention for Labor moves from 47.3 per cent to 48.1 per cent.

I would like to give you the plot, but from my seaside holiday destination I only have a one-bar 2G connection to the interweb thing.

Update: A short drive yields a better internet connection. Here are the charts:

This latest data-point substantially moved the Morgan face-to-face house effect (from 1.99 percentage points previously to 2.35 points now). This is a lot of movement in the house effect for a single data point. In time we will see whether this latest Morgan data-point was an outlier or a turning point. 

As a counter-factual, I have re-run the model without the Morgan face-to-face series. The results were as follows.

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