Monday, December 17, 2012

Updated poll aggregation

Today two polls were released. Essential came out 45-55 in the Coalition's favour. Nielsen came out 48-52 in the Coalition's favour. The first chart is from today's Nielsen.

The Bayesian poll aggregation, where the house effects across the six polling houses are summed to zero, is as follows. This aggregation is limited to the most recent six month period in recognition that house effects can move around over time. Also, of note, I only use every second Essential

A two-party preferred vote of 47.3 per cent would see Labor win around 62 seats. The Coalition would win 86 seats. The assumptions supporting this seat estimate are here.

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