Monday, March 25, 2013

Newspoll 42 to 58 in Coalition's favour

There is a bit of noise in the most recent polls, but the overall message is a move away from the government.

  • Newspoll has moved 6 points to the Coalition over the previous fortnight. But if you concede that the previous fortnight was a little rogue, it has only moved 3 points on the previous month.
  • Morgan has moved away from the government two points on the previous week, but it is only half a point down on a fortnight ago.
  • Galaxy is unchanged on three weeks ago.
  • Essential was unchanged on the previous week, but up a point for the government on the previous fortnight, and up two points on a month ago.

Graphically, this looks like ...

Let's have a closer look at that Newspoll.

Turning to the Bayesian aggregation, it looks like we have a new minimum, and the potential for an even larger landslide election result than we have seen for some time.

No comments:

Post a Comment