Monday, March 18, 2013

Up, down or round and round

What are the polls doing? Is Labor heading south, scraping the bottom or on the rebound? I ask the question because today's Nielsen looks like a bottom feeding story and today's Essential is a rebound (at least over the last two independent polls).

On the raw data, the individual polling houses tell all of these stories. Morgan and Galaxy have Labor heading south. Nielsen is scraping the bottom. Newspoll and Essential are rebounding.

Regular readers of this blog know that individual poll-to-poll movements are mostly meaningless noise. That is why I aggregate the polls. When I aggregate, the most likely story continues to be one of bouncing along the bottom. The polls are no longer heading south, but nor are they rebounding in any substantial way.

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