Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Weekly aggregation

This week we have two fresh poll reports. A status quo report from Essential (45-55), and 0.5 percentage point improvement for the government from Morgan (45.5-54.5). I have ignored the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which was a shocker for the government (41-59). My model does not include single-state polls of Federal voting intention.

Both the LOESS and the Bayesian Aggregation suggest that over the past two months there has been a slow trickle of votes back to the government worth almost one percentage point (on the BA - don't get me going about the way in which LOESS exaggerates end point trends).

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