Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Weekly aggregation: Labor on 50.5 per cent

Three polls came out in the past 24 hours:

  • Newspoll is at 50-50
  • Morgan has Labor well in front at 52.5 to 47.5 (using the preferences flows from the last election)
  • Essential has the Coalition well in front on 48-52

Graphically, this looks like.

Turning to the Bayesian aggregation.

1 comment:

  1. I have updated my analysis as well. We differ somewhat in our conclusions, which I think is due to the fact that my analysis downweights the Morgan multi-mode results significantly (by about a factor of 5) based on excess scatter.

    I have also backed out the one-week Essential result from last week's result and this week's 2-week rolling average.