- Newspoll is at 50-50
- Morgan has Labor well in front at 52.5 to 47.5 (using the preferences flows from the last election)
- Essential has the Coalition well in front on 48-52
Graphically, this looks like.
Turning to the Bayesian aggregation.
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Weekly aggregation: Labor on 50.5 per cent
Three polls came out in the past 24 hours:
Graphically, this looks like.
Turning to the Bayesian aggregation.
Graphically, this looks like.
Turning to the Bayesian aggregation.
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I have updated my analysis as well. We differ somewhat in our conclusions, which I think is due to the fact that my analysis downweights the Morgan multi-mode results significantly (by about a factor of 5) based on excess scatter.
ReplyDeleteI have also backed out the one-week Essential result from last week's result and this week's 2-week rolling average.
http://www.pottinger.com/5/post/2013/07/weekly-update-9-july-2013.html