Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Weekly aggregation

This week's polls (noting that at 7.30am Essential is not out):

  • ReachTEL at 49-51 moved a point in Labor's favour
  • Morgan at 52-48 moved half a point in Labor's favour
  • Newspoll at 48-52 moved two points in the Coalition's favour

These polls produced an aggregation that is largely unchanged. [But note: I have down-weighted the Morgan sample size in this week's aggregation to better match the variance we see in that polling series. I have also relaxed the day-to-day change constraint in the temporal part of the model. I am using the one-percent figure I originally used].

On a uniform swing basis, this would see the following outcome as the most likely:

Of note: Simon Jackman observed the most recent Newspoll (below) has seen the probably of a Labor win (as reflected by betting markets) move from having a three in front of it to having a two in front.

Update 8.30pm

Now that the Essential poll (49-51 in the Coalitions favour; a one point move to Labor) has been factored into the aggregation we see an ever so slightly more favourable result for the Government (but really not that different to what we had above).


  1. If I may ask: what weighting have you applied to the Morgan poll, and how have you calculated it?