Thursday, September 5, 2013

Betting market update

This morning's 7.30am run revealed a swag of safe Coalition seats where Centrebet is not offering odds at the moment (bottom 13 rows). The results follow.

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Brand WA 48.0 48.0 3.9 Labor ? ?
Lingiari NT 44.4 48.1 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 49.0 46.5 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 42.8 51.7 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 43.4 52.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Hindmarsh SA 52.5 43.5 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 52.8 41.5 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 43.4 52.9 3.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Page NSW 53.1 41.8 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Indi VIC 3.3 53.6 43.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McEwen VIC 55.4 40.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 55.6 40.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 56.4 38.0 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 38.0 58.3 3.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Franklin TAS 59.4 33.8 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 62.3 31.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Melbourne VIC 62.8 2.6 34.6 Other Labor TRUE
McMahon NSW 64.2 32.7 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Moreton QLD 30.3 65.0 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Eden-Monaro NSW 30.4 65.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Richmond NSW 66.1 26.8 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Parramatta NSW 27.3 67.1 5.6 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brisbane QLD 27.5 67.8 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Rankin QLD 69.4 26.1 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 70.3 24.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Flynn QLD 22.8 70.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bruce VIC 70.9 22.8 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 21.9 73.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Wakefield SA 74.2 20.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 75.3 19.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Oxley QLD 75.7 21.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 21.1 75.8 3.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Solomon NT 18.3 76.5 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dawson QLD 17.5 76.6 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dobell NSW 15.6 76.7 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 78.3 16.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forde QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 12.2 79.0 8.8 Other Coalition TRUE
Swan WA 16.9 79.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Robertson NSW 11.2 79.3 9.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Longman QLD 14.7 80.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Reid NSW 14.8 80.5 4.8 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Hasluck WA 15.0 81.7 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 82.2 12.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 12.6 82.3 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Braddon TAS 12.6 82.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Leichhardt QLD 10.9 82.8 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hinkler QLD 6.5 83.1 10.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Herbert QLD 11.8 83.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Casey VIC 9.6 83.3 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Fadden QLD 7.7 83.5 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.9 11.0 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Gilmore NSW 9.6 84.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 10.6 5.0 84.4 Other Other FALSE
Deakin VIC 9.2 84.5 6.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Stirling WA 8.6 84.7 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Banks NSW 11.1 84.7 4.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Corangamite VIC 9.2 84.8 6.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bowman QLD 9.2 84.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 9.9 85.4 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Canning WA 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 86.0 9.3 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McMillan VIC 8.0 86.0 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Canberra ACT 86.1 8.0 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 8.8 86.1 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 9.4 86.7 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 8.9 86.8 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 8.0 86.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Boothby SA 8.1 87.1 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Macarthur NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 87.8 2.6 9.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 88.1 7.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Berowra NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mackellar NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Other Coalition TRUE
Parkes NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Riverina NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Groom QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Murray VIC NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE

The summary results (on the favourite wins basis):

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 94.5 53.5 2

Cathy McGowan's chances have improved materially in the seat of Indi. Adam Bandt seems to be doing better in the seat of Melbourne. Clive Palmer's chances look unchanged in Fairfax. Andrew Wilkie looks safe in Denison and Bob Katter looks safe in Kennedy.
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