Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Poll update

The polls are noisy and contradictory this fortnight. At 49-51 in Labor's favour, today's Newspoll is the best result for the Coalition since September 2014.  It represents a four point move towards the Coalition over the previous fortnight. However, tempering the celebrations in the Coalition's ranks was yesterday's Morgan poll at 44-56 in Labor's favour. This was a 2.5 percentage point move towards Labor over the previous Morgan poll.

Let's look at the charts. We will start with the polling house-by-house line chart. You will note we have not seen a national Galaxy or ReachTEL poll for some time, as they focus on the NSW election.

Plugging the latest numbers into the Bayesian model, suggests the Coalition's fortunes are improving slowly, but there is a way to go before the Coalition would be in there with a chance at the next election. Nonetheless, the 2.2 percentage point improvement since the spill motion just six weeks ago is not to be sneezed at.

The LOESS model has come back into line with the Bayesian model.

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