Monday, April 9, 2018

The Newspoll 30 Aggregation

The three most recent polls (Newspoll, Ipsos and Roy Morgan) have all been more benign for Malcolm Turnbull than earlier polls this year. This yields an aggregation that continues to improve (albeit slowly) for the Coalition. Nonetheless, the Labor party remains the strong favourite to win if an election was held at the moment.

In the next few charts we will look at the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share, first through the lens of the Bayesian Hierarchical model, then using Henderson moving averages (HMA) and locally weighted scatter plot smoothing (LOWESS). All of these charts assume that systemic house effects sum to zero.

The next set of charts provides the aggregations for primary vote shares.

Which yields a TPP estimate, using preference flows from previous elections.

Note: this analysis uses data from the Wikipedia page on the next Australian election. Further details on the Bayesian models I use can be found here.

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