Poll aggregation

I have updated my Bayesian poll aggregation models for the 2025 Australian Federal election. The aggregation suggests that Labor would win an election if one was held now. Nonetheless, voting intention for Labor is down from its peak around 56 per cent earlier in the year.

There has also been some movement in the primary voting intention. The non-mainstream other primary vote share is largely unchanged over the year. The Green vote is up. The Coalition vote is up. And Labor's vote is down.

Perhaps the largest movement over the year is in the satisfaction with Prime Minister Albanese's performance. The following charts are based on a 3-month localised regression.

The remaining attitudinal charts show less change.