Resolve strategic 57/43

The latest Resolve Strategic poll from 5 November has Labor with a two party preferred vote of 57 and the Coalition on 43. 

On my models, Resolve Strategic is around four percentage points more favourable to Labor than the average for all pollsters across the time-series of opinion polls. The first model is the Gaussian Random Walk [GRW] with house effects that sum to zero. [The "Normal" in the header is because I used a Normal likelihood distribution for fitting the underlying random walk to the polling observations. The "fixed" refers to the fact I used selected fixed value priors rather than let the model settle these.]

The second model is a Gaussian Process [GP], again with House effects that sum to zero.