TPP Pendulum for the 2025 Federal Election

I am starting to think about how to model the 2025 House election, now that we have a sizeable number of seats filled by Greens or independents.

As a first step I have been looking at the two-party preferred (TPP) vote baseline following the redistributions in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia. I will add the Northern Territory redistribution if it is finalised before the election.

My initial assessment of the 2025 Australian Federal Election TPP Pendulum follows. The Approx column indicates whether the post-redistribution Labor TPP is an estimate based on TPP totals by former electorates and TPP totals at polling booths.

	State	Post-redistribution Labor TPP in 2022 (%)	Pre-redistribution Labor TPP in 2022 (%)	Change in Labor's 2022 TPP	Approx
Maranoa	QLD	27.88	27.88	0.00	False
Gippsland	VIC	29.43	29.43	0.00	True
Mallee	VIC	31.01	31.01	0.00	True
Parkes	NSW	32.18	32.16	0.02	True
Barker	SA	33.38	33.38	0.00	False
Farrer	NSW	33.65	33.65	0.00	True
Nicholls	VIC	33.83	32.85	0.98	True
New England	NSW	34.13	33.57	0.56	True
Calare	NSW	34.55	34.55	0.00	True
Groom	QLD	35.83	35.83	0.00	False
Lyne	NSW	36.20	36.20	0.00	True
Herbert	QLD	38.23	38.23	0.00	False
Cook	NSW	38.49	37.56	0.93	True
Wide Bay	QLD	38.66	38.66	0.00	False
Moncrieff	QLD	38.81	38.81	0.00	False
Wright	QLD	39.11	39.11	0.00	False
Page	NSW	39.32	39.26	0.06	True
Fadden	QLD	39.37	39.37	0.00	False
Dawson	QLD	39.58	39.58	0.00	False
Riverina	NSW	39.83	35.15	4.68	True
Kennedy	QLD	39.84	39.84	0.00	False
Hinkler	QLD	39.93	39.93	0.00	False
Grey	SA	39.93	39.93	0.00	False
Mitchell	NSW	40.01	39.31	0.70	True
Cowper	NSW	40.50	40.53	-0.03	True
McPherson	QLD	40.66	40.66	0.00	False
Fairfax	QLD	41.05	41.05	0.00	False
Wannon	VIC	41.32	40.93	0.39	True
Fisher	QLD	41.33	41.33	0.00	False
La Trobe	VIC	41.71	41.31	0.40	True
Braddon	TAS	41.97	41.97	0.00	False
Hume	NSW	42.07	42.28	-0.21	True
Mackellar	NSW	42.15	41.40	0.75	True
Berowra	NSW	42.63	40.23	2.40	True
O'Connor	WA	43.34	43.03	0.31	True
Flinders	VIC	43.37	43.30	0.07	True
Capricornia	QLD	43.41	43.41	0.00	False
Bradfield	NSW	43.60	43.45	0.15	True
Lindsay	NSW	44.02	43.66	0.36	True
Curtin	WA	44.41	44.40	0.01	True
Bowman	QLD	44.49	44.49	0.00	False
Indi	VIC	44.74	44.74	0.00	True
Kooyong	VIC	44.96	45.82	-0.86	True
Durack	WA	44.99	45.73	-0.74	True
Petrie	QLD	45.56	45.56	0.00	False
Forde	QLD	45.77	45.77	0.00	False
Forrest	WA	45.97	45.71	0.26	True
Hughes	NSW	46.09	42.99	3.10	True
Banks	NSW	46.17	46.80	-0.63	True
Flynn	QLD	46.18	46.18	0.00	False
Leichhardt	QLD	46.56	46.56	0.00	False
Bonner	QLD	46.59	46.59	0.00	False
Goldstein	VIC	46.76	45.20	1.56	True
Longman	QLD	46.92	46.92	0.00	False
Monash	VIC	47.10	47.10	0.00	True
Aston	VIC	47.57	47.19	0.38	True
Wentworth	NSW	48.28	44.08	4.20	True
Dickson	QLD	48.30	48.30	0.00	False
Casey	VIC	48.32	48.52	-0.20	True
Bass	TAS	48.57	48.57	0.00	False
Canning	WA	48.97	46.41	2.56	True
Moore	WA	49.16	49.34	-0.18	True
Sturt	SA	49.55	49.55	0.00	False
Warringah	NSW	49.59	48.57	1.02	True
Bennelong	NSW	49.67	50.98	-1.31	True
Deakin	VIC	50.01	49.81	0.20	True
Gilmore	NSW	50.16	50.17	-0.01	True
Menzies	VIC	50.82	49.32	1.50	True
Lyons	TAS	50.92	50.92	0.00	False
Lingiari	NT	50.95	50.95	0.00	False
Mayo	SA	51.59	51.59	0.00	False
Robertson	NSW	51.97	52.26	-0.29	True
Bullwinkel	WA	52.33	-	-	True
Ryan	QLD	52.42	52.42	0.00	False
Paterson	NSW	52.68	53.31	-0.63	True
Tangney	WA	52.90	52.38	0.52	True
Chisholm	VIC	53.06	56.41	-3.35	True
Boothby	SA	53.28	53.28	0.00	False
Parramatta	NSW	53.54	54.57	-1.03	True
McEwen	VIC	53.54	53.28	0.26	True
Brisbane	QLD	54.40	54.40	0.00	False
Hunter	NSW	54.72	54.03	0.69	True
Werriwa	NSW	55.06	55.82	-0.76	True
Reid	NSW	55.14	55.19	-0.05	True
Blair	QLD	55.23	55.23	0.00	False
Bruce	VIC	55.43	56.59	-1.16	True
Shortland	NSW	55.98	55.82	0.16	True
Fowler	NSW	56.04	55.72	0.32	True
Macquarie	NSW	56.18	57.77	-1.59	True
Holt	VIC	56.72	57.12	-0.40	True
Dobell	NSW	56.86	56.52	0.34	True
Eden-Monaro	NSW	57.30	58.20	-0.90	True
Hawke	VIC	57.61	57.63	-0.02	True
Dunkley	VIC	57.69	56.27	1.42	True
Whitlam	NSW	57.94	60.07	-2.13	True
Greenway	NSW	58.06	61.53	-3.47	True
Corangamite	VIC	58.17	57.60	0.57	True
Richmond	NSW	58.23	58.23	0.00	True
Hindmarsh	SA	58.95	58.95	0.00	False
Pearce	WA	59.07	59.04	0.03	True
Moreton	QLD	59.09	59.09	0.00	False
Rankin	QLD	59.09	59.09	0.00	False
Solomon	NT	59.37	59.37	0.00	False
Cowan	WA	59.39	60.82	-1.43	True
Isaacs	VIC	59.45	56.85	2.60	True
Swan	WA	59.81	58.77	1.04	True
Gorton	VIC	59.93	59.97	-0.04	True
Macarthur	NSW	60.36	58.53	1.83	True
Gellibrand	VIC	60.51	61.54	-1.03	True
Lilley	QLD	60.54	60.54	0.00	False
McMahon	NSW	60.67	59.49	1.18	True
Makin	SA	60.80	60.80	0.00	False
Bendigo	VIC	61.03	62.11	-1.08	True
Hasluck	WA	61.04	56.00	5.04	True
Griffith	QLD	61.07	61.07	0.00	False
Oxley	QLD	61.59	61.59	0.00	False
Barton	NSW	61.71	65.54	-3.83	True
Adelaide	SA	61.91	61.91	0.00	False
Jagajaga	VIC	62.20	62.35	-0.15	True
Hotham	VIC	62.32	64.25	-1.93	True
Corio	VIC	62.33	62.84	-0.51	True
Maribyrnong	VIC	62.37	62.45	-0.08	True
Kingsford Smith	NSW	62.46	64.50	-2.04	True
Calwell	VIC	62.62	62.39	0.23	True
Lalor	VIC	62.78	62.82	-0.04	True
Spence	SA	62.90	62.90	0.00	False
Bean	ACT	62.95	62.95	0.00	False
Ballarat	VIC	62.97	62.97	0.00	True
Burt	WA	63.26	65.21	-1.95	True
Macnamara	VIC	63.40	62.25	1.15	True
Franklin	TAS	63.70	63.70	0.00	False
Chifley	NSW	63.88	63.47	0.41	True
Perth	WA	64.30	64.80	-0.50	True
Blaxland	NSW	64.45	64.94	-0.49	True
Cunningham	NSW	65.40	64.70	0.70	True
Scullin	VIC	65.51	65.58	-0.07	True
Fenner	ACT	65.69	65.69	0.00	False
Watson	NSW	65.72	65.10	0.62	True
Kingston	SA	66.35	66.35	0.00	False
Fraser	VIC	66.86	66.50	0.36	True
Fremantle	WA	66.91	66.89	0.02	True
Clark	TAS	67.24	67.24	0.00	False
Brand	WA	67.39	66.71	0.68	True
Newcastle	NSW	67.81	67.98	-0.17	True
Melbourne	VIC	71.86	77.91	-6.05	True
Canberra	ACT	72.46	72.46	0.00	False
Sydney	NSW	75.28	75.57	-0.29	True
Cooper	VIC	76.04	75.46	0.58	True
Grayndler	NSW	77.36	78.85	-1.49	True
Wills	VIC	78.36	75.77	2.59	True

This pendulum has the new WA seat of Bullwinkle. The former NSW seat of North Sydney, and the former Victorian seat of Higgins no longer exist.

All of the data used to calculate the TPP Pendulum was downloaded from the Australian Electoral Commission. 

The approach I took to produce this pendulum can be found on my Github site. Please note this is early developmental work, and may change as I continue to work on a model for forecasting the next election. If you see any errors in my code or my approach, please let me know in the comments.