Friday, May 31, 2013

Predictions at 3.5 months out

In the past week a couple of analysts have turned their hand to forecasting the election outcome.

Julian King at Pottinger has developed a Bayesian model to predict the election outcome based on past election outcomes and the current polls. His conclusion: the Coalition has a 93.6% chance of winning the election, the ALP has a 1.9% chance of winning the election, and there is a 4.5% chance of a hung parliament.

In the Guardian, Simon Jackman (also drawing on Bayesian statistics) observes "I expect some narrowing to be more likely than the Coalition improving on 55-45 TPP. But bottom line: Labor just can’t get to an election winning position from here."


Kevin Bonham has looked at the above analyses. While he agrees with their conclusion, it is not because a five point move in the polls is uncommon. They have happened many times in past; just under different circumstances.

Paul Davis also had a look at these analyses. His assessment is more critical.


  1. I wouldn't have called Paul's analysis more critical; it only references the analysis in the Guardian and goes on to lay out some of the first basics surrounding these sort of analysis. I think looking at the Pottinger piece and commenting on that would have helped his piece immensely.

    Kevin's work is, as always, a little deeper.