Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Weekly aggregation (44.6 to 55.4)

Three polls this week:

  • Newspoll has moved two points against the government (42-58)
  • Morgan has moved one point against the government (44.5-55.5)
  • Essential is unchanged (45-55)

Let's start with the Newspoll, which was a bit of a shocker for the Government. The Greens also appear to be going through a purple patch.

Without further evidence of a new slump, I suspect the most recent two-point movement from Newspoll was mostly noise. My gut feeling is that the underlying voting intention is not moving much at the moment. At this stage we are not seeing similarly large movements from the other polling houses.

This status-quo LOESS result is confirmed by the Bayesian Aggregation. If you look at the 91-day Henderson moving average, the latest results are not inconsistent with a broader narrative of a slow trickle of votes to the Labor party (call it a slow narrowing).

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