Monday, June 17, 2013

Nielsen poll: 43 to 57

Rather than wait until tomorrow for the weekly aggregation, when all of the week's polls are in, I thought I would give a foretaste today, using just Galaxy and Nielsen. I will update the aggregation further tomorrow.

The Nielsen poll particularly caught my eye with its gendered analysis.

I liked what John Stirton had to say in the AFR (pay-walled).  In short, he noted the average of the polls since February has been around 44 to 55 (for the Coalition), and this result is within the margin or error of that average. He also noted that while the hypothetical scenario polls suggest Kevin Rudd might poll better than Julia Gillard, these polls do not take into account the context and consequences of change.

My key Nielsen charts follow.

And on to the aggregation ...

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