Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Weekly aggregation

While the gender splits in yesterday's Nielsen poll were unfavourable for the government. The splits in the most recent Morgan poll were favourable. According to Morgan:

Analysis by Gender this week shows both genders swinging towards the ALP but with a wide divergence between men and women. Women are now evenly split on a two party preferred basis with the ALP (50%, up 4%) level with the L-NP (50%, down 4%) while men still strongly favour the L-NP (56.5%, down 2%) cf. ALP (43.5%, up 2%).

One of the reasons I aggregate polls is to filter out the noise and reveal the underlying signal. My suspicion is that the most recent movement to the Coalition in Nielsen, and the recent movement to Labor in Morgan are both reflective of the normal variability in polling data. Behind the stochastic perturbations from individual polling houses, I suspect the underlying population voting intention parameter is largely unchanged on last week.

While the poll aggregation (see below) is better news for the Government than a plain-face reading of yesterday's Nielsen poll, it still points to a comprehensive loss at the September election.

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